Wednesday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Son of a Birch attempts two turns at more realistic level
Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 5:07 p.m. (ET)
There is no shortage of early speed in this $40k claimer going a mile on the inner turf, which features a large and competitive field. Tut's Revenge (#1) is most appealing of those who figure to be forwardly placed. He got a little keen chasing the pace against a tougher field at Churchill Downs last time, and actually stayed on well to just miss third after a wide trip. He may have to prove that he can win without the early lead, but he is dropping to a much more realistic level. If Ricardo Santana is able to use his speed to get over from this outside post, I believe he has a strong chance to be successful. The paces going this distance on the inner turf don't always materialize to be as fast as they seem on paper.
I do still think it's worth considering some horses that can close from off the pace. That includes Irwin (#11), who returns from a layoff and drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He ran well off a similar layoff last August and held strong form through the end of the season. The drop off this recent break makes sense now that he's a 7-year-old with limited upside. Phil Antonacci is having a strong meet, and this barn does pretty well off layoffs like this. I also think Sky's Not Falling (#8) makes some sense as he drops in for a tag for the first time in quite a while. This horse's recent form clearly leaves something to be desired, but he was overmatched last time at Woodbine and has handled two turns in the past. He also gets a significant rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz.
My top pick is another dropdown, Son of a Birch (#10). This horse has concentrated on sprints for the majority of his career, only routing on turf twice. The first of those attempts came as a young 2-year-old, and he got far too rank before fading. It took him nearly 3 years to try two turns again, and he actually ran pretty well going this distance in May at Aqueduct. He was rated strongly off a moderate pace, so as not to engage speedier stablemate Donegal Momentum. He wasn't good enough to win at that level, but he did produce a decent kick to get into third. Now Tom Morley takes the blinkers off, a move that should suit a horse who is naturally keen going into this trip. It also doesn't hurt to pick up Flavien Prat.