An important rule in handicapping is to devalue performances from horses who rode the crest of a strong track bias as those performances were artificially enhanced, and likely are not replicable. An even more important rule in handicapping is to not be so dogmatic about rules. The above comes to mind after Saturday’s Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Heavy rain prior to Saturday’s card there turned Oaklawn’s main track sloppy. Now, it goes without saying that not all wet tracks are biased toward specific paths or horses with certain running styles. But in this instance, weather did produce a profound track bias. While there was absolutely nothing wrong with the inside on Friday’s fast track at Oaklawn – Lady Apple came up the rail to great avail to win the Fantasy – the inside there was absolutely dead on Saturday’s sloppy surface. This was clear from the very first race of the day and became only more obvious with each passing event. :: Shop for PPs, picks, DRF+ and more in our store! Omaha Beach, who gamely turned away the hard-trying Improbable through the stretch to win the Arkansas Derby by one length, was steered four wide on the first turn and stayed three to four wide on the far turn. Improbable was angled away from the inside on the first turn and was safely well outside down the backstretch. Oaklawn’s track announcer seemed incredulous that Improbable was going to lose so much ground into the far turn after breaking from the one post, but being four wide, as Improbable was on the far turn, was the best thing that could have happened to him. And as Omaha Beach and Improbable engaged in their tremendously entertaining stretch battle, they pulled almost six lengths clear of the third-place finisher – Country House, who was four to five wide on the far turn. In a vacuum, the inclination going forward might be to mark down Omaha Beach and Improbable’s Arkansas Derby performances because they went with the flow of a strong track bias. But nothing happens in a vacuum, and in this case, I feel it would be a mistake to be harsh with what Omaha Beach and Improbable did Saturday. The Arkansas Derby was not a situation like, say, Maximum Security’s Florida Derby. Maximum Security did not cash in on a profound track bias in the Florida Derby, but he did the next best thing. He got away with setting an extremely slow and uncontested pace, and had that critical Kentucky Derby prep handed to him on a silver platter. The Florida Derby was Maximum Security’s first attempt around two turns, but because of the way that race was run, we still don’t have a good idea of what his capabilities might be in a truly run route. The difference with Omaha Beach and Improbable, and why one should resist the temptation to devalue their Arkansas Derby efforts on the basis of track bias, is we already knew going into Saturday that both are among the very best of their generation. Omaha Beach gamely held off last year’s champion 2-year-old male champion Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel in his stakes debut, and that performance was no surprise. Omaha Beach had always been highly regarded, and he announced to the world he had turned a corner one month earlier with an explosive maiden win. Improbable was so impressive winning all three of his starts last year that he was a finalist for the 2018 2-year-old male Eclipse Award, and he lost nothing in stature when a narrowly beaten second in the first division of the Rebel after a wide trip on a day at Oaklawn when wide trips were not necessarily helpful. In regard to the Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach is without question one of the ones. He has the positional speed that is so critical to working out good trips. By no means does he need the lead to be effective, and yet he can go that way if he must. Omaha Beach is bred to run all day, and he’s a fighter. There is just a lot to like about him. :: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Improbable is more of a tricky call. He was unsettled in the gate before the start Saturday, and that couldn’t have helped. Still, my view of Improbable, and the reason why I’ve found him so intriguing, is he did what he did in his first four starts while seemingly extending himself only to the bare minimum, leaving the distinct impression there was a lot more there. Well, Improbable tried Saturday. He tried hard, and yet was only second-best. But in Omaha Beach, Improbable was second-best to one of the ones, and the margin between them was close enough that it is not unreasonable to think tables can be turned under different circumstances. Notes: ► Saturday’s other Kentucky Derby points prep was the Lexington at Keeneland, and Owendale’s 12-1 upset thwarted Anothertwistafate and Sueno’s hopes of tacking on enough points to make it into the Derby field without defections of those above them on the points list. The 20 Derby points Owendale received the winning the Lexington were his only points and leave him well short of the dividing line. Horseplayer’s lament – my Weekend Warrior play in the Lexington was Sueno, the horse I liked in the Louisiana Derby, in which he finished third. Instead, I should have been more forgiving of the eighth-place finish of my Weekend Warrior play in the Risen Star, who was none other than Owendale. Ugh. ► I know they were longshots, but four of the last five finishers in the 11-horse Arkansas Derby spent a good part if not all of the race on or very close to the dead rail. They were Jersey Agenda (seventh, beaten 17 1/2 lengths), Gray Attempt (ninth, beaten 23 3/4 lengths), Six Shooter (10th, beaten 37 3/4 lengths), and One Flew South (11th, beaten 45 lengths). Of course, what this means is there were four jockeys who either didn’t see the obvious track bias, didn’t care about it, or don’t believe in biases in general. Incredible, either way. ► Keeneland’s two Grade 1 turf mile stakes over the weekend were the stages of some fine performances. Rushing Fall led Saturday’s Jenny Wiley field on a merry chase and though she was the 4-5 favorite, and though she is now 4 for 4 on Keeneland’s turf course, it is worth noting this was her first career start in a race not restricted to members of her age group. Delta Prince won Friday’s Maker’s 46 Mile despite getting shuffled back a bit in the early stages, putting him farther off the early pace than he might otherwise have been. Maybe that was a blessing because Delta Prince produced a powerful late kick in what was the most impressive performance of his career.