If allowed only one word to describe the 2019 Kentucky Derby, that word could be “parity.” Bob Baffert, who trains the three favorites for this Derby – Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable – used that descriptor in a recent media teleconference. And by many measures, the term fits. For example, take a look at the most recent Beyer Speed Figures earned by this Derby field. Six of the winning Beyer Figures for this year’s seven final, 1 1/8-mile U.S. Derby preps were separated by only six Beyer points. The Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby each had winning Beyers of 101. The Santa Anita Derby had a winning Beyer of 98. The Louisiana Derby and Wood Memorial had winning Beyers of 97. The Sunland Park Derby had a winning Beyer of 95. And if you want to stretch by just one more point, you could include the remaining final, 1 1/8-mile U.S. Derby prep, the Blue Grass, which had a winning Beyer of 94. Consider the last-out Beyer Figures of many of the horses who contested these final preps. Maximum Security has a last out Beyer of 101, the highest last-out Beyer in this Derby field. Improbable has a 99, and Roadster has a 98. By My Standards, Game Winner, and Tacitus each have last-out Beyers of 97. Bodexpress, the maiden who drew in after the terribly unfortunate scratch late Wednesday of Derby favorite Omaha Beach, has a last out Beyer of 96. And Cutting Humor, Spinoff and Tax each has a 95. In other words, 10 horses, or half of this Derby field, have last-out Beyers that are separated by only six points. We all know that factors such as pace, trips, readiness, and intent can individually have a profound impact on speed figures. But when combined in any permutation you can think of, the impact can be enormous. So, in many instances, a spread of six Beyer points might mean absolutely nothing. And the Kentucky Derby, a U.S. race like no other involving young 3-year-olds who can improve dramatically overnight at rates different from one another, is just such an instance. Mind you, this is coming from a devotee of speed figures for more decades than I care to even think about. For these reasons, being too literal with the six-point spread among the highest last out Beyer earners comprising half of this Derby is inviting trouble. I’d rather simply accept that the main players in this Derby are all roughly as fast as each other and instead put the primary emphasis on what I saw during the prep season. Sometimes simple is better. When I looked at this Derby that way, the suffocating sense of parity was replaced by a feeling of clarity. Now, it might turn out I’m wrong in how I now see this Derby – it wouldn’t be the first time – but after Omaha Beach was withdrawn, I found four horses in this Derby to be a decided cut above everyone else, and I believe the winner is likely to only come from this quartet. These four, in post position order, are Improbable, Tacitus, Game Winner, and Roadster. I know. There are no sexy 30-1 shots in that group. In fact, these four are likely to be the first four favorites. I’m sorry. Call me a chalk-eating weasel if it makes you feel better. But it is consolation that in a Derby that lacks an overwhelming favorite, the prices on any one of these four should be palatable, at least. Let’s talk about Roadster first, because while I think he can certainly win, he’s not going to be my top choice. Roadster beat barnmate Game Winner by a half-length in the Santa Anita Derby last time out and is now 2 for 2 since undergoing throat surgery. Roadster has always been held in high regard by the Baffert barn, but he had a much better trip in the Santa Anita Derby than Game Winner. He saved more ground and made his move later, which was a good thing as that race developed, and I expect the tables to be turned this time. Game Winner took his first two career losses in his two starts this year, but I actually liked both efforts better than any of his four wins last season when he was champion 2-year-old male. He was beaten a diminishing nose in his 3-year-old bow in the second division of the Rebel by Omaha Beach, who would have been the Derby favorite, off a four-month layoff and after a wider trip than Omaha Beach. Most recently, Game Winner was given a four-wide trip throughout (which isn’t easy in a six-horse field) and moved into a third quarter-mile that happened to be the second fastest fraction of the race. His was, in every way other than the bottom line, a winning effort. Game Winner, who will likely now inherit the role of Derby favorite, is plenty good enough to win Saturday. But my worry is, even after moving in one post position to the 15 hole, he still might be locked into yet another costly wide trip. Tacitus is talented and tough, and gives every indication he will adore the 1 1/4 miles he gets in the Derby. He may have had an ideal trip in the Tampa Bay Derby two starts back, but the fact he won despite making his first start in four months, his first start around two turns, his first start against winners, and his first start in a stakes race impressed me. Tacitus had anything but an ideal trip most recently in the Wood Memorial. He was flat-out mugged in the opening furlong, and yet still won. My one tiny concern with Tacitus is he did not face the strongest opposition in the Wood or in Tampa – certainly not the kind of company Game Winner and Roadster have been keeping. But his anticipated price of around 8-1 goes a good way toward mitigating that concern. Improbable was, to me, the most intriguing member of this class last year. His win at first asking was a grind-it-out special, but his subsequent scores in the Street Sense (over the Churchill main track) and the Los Alamitos Futurity were different. Although Improbable seemed to only really apply himself very late in those races, when he did, he was explosive, putting big distance between himself and his opponents in the blink of an eye. My read then on Improbable was that he was immensely talented, but somewhat unfocused, and would realize his considerable potential with racing and maturity. I note that because unlike barnmate Game Winner, I saw no excuses for Improbable when he finished second in his two starts this year. Granted, Improbable had a wider trip than Long Range Toddy in the first division of the Rebel in his return from a three-month break, but with the lead Improbable had in the stretch, he was still supposed to win. And sure, acting up in the gate before the start of the Arkansas Derby didn’t help Improbable, and maybe the experiment with blinkers didn’t, either. Nevertheless, on that day, he was only second best to Omaha Beach, albeit a game one. That said, Improbable is my pick in the Derby (over Tacitus, Game Winner and Roadster, in that order). Improbable has now had the racing experience I thought some time ago would bring out his best. The blinkers are off, too. And in the Derby, Improbable will be in the range of 6-1, a price many would have salivated at not so long ago.