Maybe it’s just me, but U.S. racing feels like it’s almost on hold until the resolution of the Horse of the Year debate between Justify and Accelerate at the Eclipse Awards dinner on Jan. 24. The votes had to be in by Jan. 2. They’ve already been counted, and we already know the three finalists in all the equine and human championship divisions. I have precisely zero inside information on how the voting went, but I doubt anyone would disagree that Justify is the favorite to capture the Horse of the Year title. After all, he became only the 13th horse to sweep the Triple Crown, probably the most difficult thing to achieve in all of sport that is within the realm of realistic possibility. Moreover, Justify, who joined Seattle Slew as only the second to emerge from a Triple Crown sweep and remain undefeated, became the first in 136 years to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old, meaning he was the first ever to take the Triple Crown without having raced at 2. Recent history has taught us how impossible it is to handicap how people vote, but if I were to put a price on Justify being Horse of the Year, it would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5. That said, a lot of folks feel the Horse of the Year vote will be close, and they make a compelling case by merely pointing to Accelerate’s record last year. That record included five Grade 1 stakes victories, four in races open to all comers, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. And while the Kentucky Derby is certainly America’s most popular race, I firmly believe the Breeders’ Cup Classic is America’s most important race, if for no other reason than the profound impact it has on the Horse of the Year award. Right here, it should be noted that yours truly has been on the record several times (a few before the Breeders’ Cup) that for me, anyway, Justify clinched Horse of the Year the moment he went under the wire first by almost two lengths in the Belmont Stakes. It doesn’t matter to me that Justify never raced again after the Belmont. In my mind, a sweep of the Triple Crown, the historic Holy Grail of our sport, automatically means that the Horse of the Year award goes with it. And for those who might suggest I’m being inconsistent considering what I said about the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the preceding paragraph, I’m really not. The 2018 Classic was the first that had a Triple Crown winner not compete in it. It became a glaring reminder that while we have a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner every year, Triple Crown winners are far more rare. Simply put, a Triple Crown sweep for me trumps everything else in our sport, and that was my approach to my Horse of the Year vote. While Justify is the favorite to be Horse of the Year, I can’t wait to see the breakdown of the actual numbers in this vote. Let’s take a look at a few possible voting scenarios. But before we do, let’s assign a qualifier to these scenarios that the third Horse of the Year finalist, Monomoy Girl, does not receive a single first-place Horse of the Year vote. Monomoy Girl is a cinch to be champion 3-year-old filly. But I would have to seriously question the qualifications and/or motives of any Eclipse Award voter who would vote for Monomoy Girl to be Horse of the Year over both Justify and Accelerate. :: 2018 Eclipse Finalists: Profiles and photos for all categories Assuming 270 Eclipse Award votes were cast (the number figures to be somewhere around there), one scenario has Justify winning a very close Horse of the Year vote by, say, 15 votes or fewer. If Justify wins with 142 votes to Accelerate’s 128, that would mean he carried 52.5 percent of the electorate. Scenario No. 2 has Justify winning by somewhere between 15 and 30 first-place votes. If Justify wins 150 Horse of the Year votes to 120, that would mean he will have carried 55.5 percent of the electorate. (As an aside, a Google search revealed there are very loose and widely varied parameters of when an election victory becomes a landslide. But if Justify wins by the vote totals suggested in Scenario 2, that would meet Politico’s definition of a landslide, which is victory by 10 percentage points or more.) Scenario No. 3 has Justify winning by somewhere between 30 and 45 first-place votes. If Justify outpolls Accelerate by, say, 157 to 113, that would mean he carried 58 percent of the Eclipse Award electorate. That would also mean Justify met the most widely accepted definition of a landslide winner, which is victory by 15 or more percentage points. Scenario No. 4 has Justify winning by more than 45 votes. Of course, there is a Scenario No. 5, and that one has Accelerate pulling the upset. Which of these scenarios do I believe is the most likely outcome? It’s a guess, but my instincts tell me that the Horse of the Year vote won’t be quite as tight as some folks think and won’t be the blowout scenario No. 4 calls for. My guess is scenarios 2 and 3 are the most likely outcomes. And if you think about those outcomes in political terms, either would mark a decisive victory for Justify. :: WIN A TRIP TO THE QUEEN'S PLATE: Click here to cast your vote for the 2018 Horse of the Year contest, and be entered to win a trip for two to the Queen’s Plate at Woodbine!