RACE 4: JEMOGRAPHY (#2) I would peg #3 Tapizearance as the horse to beat in this race, though he and all of the other short prices in this field are hardly trustworthy options. Tapizearance obviously didn’t run well first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez last time, but he was also stepping up into a much tougher spot and never looked comfortable chasing wide. He’s now dropping down to a more appropriate class level and will be tough if he can recapture the consistent form that he displayed for Linda Rice. I prefer him to #5 Magnetron, who could take some money off a couple of competitive speed figures at Finger Lakes. Some may be attracted to him because he’s exiting a victory, but he’s really more of a cheaper claimer. My top pick is #2 Jemography. Like the morning-line favorite, he didn’t run well first off the claim for a new barn last time. However, he never was going to be competitive in the Saginaw Stakes. I think some may mistakenly assume he’s just fallen apart for new trainer Ed DeLauro, but I wonder if he ran there just to make the race fill. It never looked like Eric Cancel really asked him for his best, as he was just eased to the wire once beaten. His prior form is solid and I think he’s a strong fit here if able to bounce back. :: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Saratoga RACE 5: MY SWEET STORY (#8) My primary opinion in this allowance marathon is that I want to play against #1 Shad Nation, who could go favored by default, going out for Christophe Clement with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. Her recent form is not particularly compelling, and I don’t see any evidence that she’s crying out for more ground. I actually much prefer her stablemate #1A Santa Giulia on the stretch-out. Yet she needs one scratch to get into the main body of the field, and I can’t be too positive on her, since Shad Nation will drive down her price if both run. I’m most interested in two alternatives. My top pick is #8 My Sweet Story. This grey filly has slowly but surely been coming along. She achieved her maiden victory with a late rush from last-to-first at Colonial last summer, but still seemed like a work in progress. She returned from a lengthy layoff recently with a pair of improved efforts to kick off her 4-year-old campaign. Flown, the winner of her last, is a talented multiple stakes-placed performer. This stretch-out in distance shouldn’t be an issue for her, since she’s a full-sister to My Afleet, who won going this distance and was second in the 1 5/8-mile John's Call over this course. The other runner I want to use is #7 Good Measure. She’s only made one turf start during her career, coming last fall at Laurel. She actually ran better than the result might indicate that day, as she was never in a comfortable spot to rally, altering course in traffic while attempting to make up ground. Since then she’s shown some improvement on dirt, and has responded well to elongated distances in her last couple of starts. Clearly the stamina is there, and fondness for turf shouldn’t be an issue, as she's a half-sister to two grass winners. RACE 8: DOUBLE CLUTCH (#7) There are a couple of short-priced runners who I think are vulnerable in the Hall of Fame. #3 Wit figures to attract some attention as he tries turf for the first time. He really doesn’t have much pedigree for this surface, but he did appear to work well over the grass in two recent drills on the Oklahoma turf course. I won’t be shocked if he runs well, but I wouldn’t want to take any kind of short price on him. #9 Tiz the Bomb is another who could take money based on reputation. He did get a poor trip in the Belmont Derby last time, going very wide on the turns and steadying on the backstretch. However, I’m just not thrilled with his prior turf form and think he’s a little overrated. There’s not that much speed in this field, so #2 Dowagiac Chief interests me a bit. I know it looks like he’s off form right now, but he got the wrong trip in the American Turf two back. And last time he was a little awkward away from the gate and unable to attain his usual position up front. He figures to get the lead with blinkers being added this time, and speed is dangerous going a mile on the inner. My top pick is #7 Double Clutch, who just seems like an inexperienced horse who still has upside. He ran well in his first two starts against maidens and made a huge jump to finish second in the Manila last time. He was still pretty far back at the top of the stretch that day, but finished well down the center of the course. I think he has more tactical speed than shown last time and should work out a good stalking trip here. I also want to use #8 Celestial City, who closed well through traffic last time and is another who seems to be moving forward with every start.