How does the Pace Projector work? The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow for the field. What is the Pace Projector saying about this particular race? This race is predicted to have a fast pace. A big group of 13 entered the Preakness on Wednesday. Seven horses in the field have a TimeformUS running style showing a fondness for running on or near the lead. One of those is listed as a Leader, longshot Market King (No. 6), with six others have a running style of Tracker. These are horses that like to be near the early lead at a minimum and have often times led races early. Are there any quirks to this particular distance or surface or field size that the algorithm adjusts for? The large field size of 13 is taken into account by the Pace Projector when assessing if the pace is likely to be fast, average, or slow. The number of horses is well above average for races in North America, and TimeformUS studies have shown this does tend to lead to faster paces than normal. :: Preakness TimeformUS PPs: Understand races faster with Pace Projector™ and pace-adjusted speed figures. Plus lifetime running lines and workout history Are equipment or other changes factored in at all? Blinker changes are considered, and for this race Bourbon War (No. 2) and Win Win Win (No. 13) are adding them. Both are shown more forward than they otherwise would have been without blinkers, but neither has shown much early speed and thus don’t have much impact on the Pace Projector. Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the PPs and from watching the races, knowing the jockey and trainer tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or less early speed than in this Projector? Warrior’s Charge didn’t run particularly well in his first three starts, but he has exploded in his last two with easy, front-running scores. Lightly raced horses like him take some time to establish a reliable running style label, and he is very likely to be closer to a Speed or even Leader based on just his last two starts. Mike Smith picks up the mount on Improbable, and he is usually a pretty aggressive rider. Improbable has never been more than three lengths behind after the opening half-mile of any race. He could very well be much more forwardly placed than the Pace Projector indicates. Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures if the pace turns out to be hot? Bourbon War, Laughing Fox (No. 11), and Win Win Win are closely rated on late pace, and there is a big gap back to fourth. They also are very close from a speed-figure perspective, so it could come down to who gets the best trip that enables that strong late kick to be effective. How have recent editions of the Preakness developed from a pace standpoint? The Preakness has had a solid to fast pace in each of the last five editions, though it should be noted only two have been on a fast track. Winning styles have been mixed. Justify and American Pharoah won on the lead, Cloud Computing and California Chrome won from tracking positions, and Exaggerator scored from well back early.