RACE 7: SANTA BARBARA (#5) I’m not one who is eager to strongly endorse short prices, but Irish import Santa Barbara just looks too classy for her Belmont Oaks foes. Despite winning some major U.S. races over the past few decades, Aidan O’Brien doesn’t have particularly strong statistics with his U.S. shippers. That said, he runs many longshots and generally ships over runners who aren’t in his first, second, or even third string. Yet his entrants in this year’s Oaks and Belmont Derby do not fit that pattern. That’s especially true for Santa Barbara, who was actually sent off favored in the 2000 Guineas and the Epsom Oaks. She didn’t win either of those races, but she suffered from inexperience in the Guineas and testing ground in the Oaks. Keeping the faith, O’Brien tested her against older horses in the Pretty Polly last time and she finally delivered a big effort at the Group 1 level. She just missed to Thundering Nights, a 4-year-old filly who had just barely lost the Grade 2 New York at Belmont earlier in the month. I expect her to be tough for this group to handle. The only American who interests me as a potential alternative is Plum Ali, the runner-up in the local prep for this, the Wonder Again. There were some issues timing that race, but it was clear that the early pace was slow and she did well to make up as much ground as she did through the lane. The problem is that she once again finds herself in a race lacking serious pace and she’s meeting an unusually talented foreign rival. :: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Belmont RACE 8: AUSTRALASIA (#7) The undefeated Louisiana-bred Australasia flew under the radar in the Jersey Girl as New York bettors didn’t respect her out-of-town form. After all, she had never run a particularly fast race sprinting despite having achieved most of her victories with ease. While she did figure to be the lone closer in a field of speeds, the pace of the Jersey Girl didn’t materialize as one would have expected. One of those speeds, Miss Brazil, failed to break sharply, and they actually went a fairly slow half. Due to the moderate pace, Australasia had to run her last quarter in a blazing 22.92 seconds (per Trakus) to get up, displaying an electrifying turn of foot through the final eighth. She now figures to get even more pace to close into with additional speeds signed on, and the added sixteenth of this Victory Ride figures to suit her perfectly. As long as Joel Rosario is able to deliver the same kind of ride and trip this time, I expect her to keep that undefeated streak intact. I do respect her main rival Miss Brazil, who in addition to the slow start was compromised by breaking through the starting gate prior to the race. She’s proven her quality against some very good 3-year-old fillies, but she’s done her best work on the front end and she finds herself sandwiched between some very quick fillies who will be looking to get forward position. The interesting closer at a bigger price may be Souper Sensational, but she still has much to prove against this level of competition while cutting back in distance. She’s one to use underneath the top selection.   RACE 9: SAFE CONDUCT (#3) As noted above, Aidan O’Brien has brought two of his top 3-year-olds to compete in this year’s Belmont Oaks and Belmont Derby, a break from his past pattern of shipping over second- and third-rate runners. Like Santa Barbara in the Oaks, Bolshoi Ballet was sent off as the favorite – and a heavy one – in a major European classic last time out. He didn’t deliver that day, but it’s been widely reported that he sustained a cut during the running and may not have been at his best. He had the look of a future Group 1 winner when taking down the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial by six lengths, and a repeat of that form will likely make him too good for this field to handle. However, it’s still fair to be a little skeptical of these O’Brien runners at short prices given his general history of underachieving with shippers to the U.S. I couldn’t find a suitable American alternative in the Oaks, but there are some pretty talented U.S.-based 3-year-olds in this Belmont Derby. The obvious one is Hard Love, who has been nearly perfect in four career starts. He adapted nicely to his connections’ Plan B when forced to face older horses in an allowance prep once the Pennine Ridge came off the turf. He’s a major player, and will justifiably be the second choice in the wagering. My top pick at a much more enticing price is Safe Conduct. He actually stayed in that off-the-turf Pennine Ridge and predictably wasn’t a factor. I don’t care about that loss, as it will only enhance his odds here. Safe Conduct has run well in all of his turf starts, and still is underrated coming into this Grade 1 test. He won a very tough allowance race at Belmont in early May by open lengths. While he got a great trip, he absolutely sprinted through the lane, holding the talented Public Sector at bay with ease. I don’t mind the added distance and it doesn’t hurt to have two-time Belmont Derby-winning jockey Jose Lezcano aboard.