TimeformUS Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday, September 22, 2022

RACE 5: SILVER SKILLET (#3)

I’m not trying to beat second-time starter Silver Skillet (#3), who caught a solid field on debut at the Spa and did some good things despite finishing off the board. She was shuffled back in the early stages and found herself in an awkward position heading down the backstretch. She raced in traffic and had to make a few moves to reach contention before flattening out late. Overall, the performance was better than it looks on paper. Christophe Clement is 5 for 12 (42%, $6.65 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second-time starters on dirt over five years. I expect her to show a bit more speed this time and anticipate a much better result. Disruption (#4) exits the same race and also has a right to step forward. She didn’t give as many positive signals, but did show early speed and could be forward again. Stonewall Star (#5) got a much smoother trip than my top pick in her debut. However, she did run pretty well, professionally slipping through inside on the turn before getting overhauled by a more experienced rival late. Horacio De Paz also has positive statistics with maiden second-time starters on dirt. There are a few first-time starters to consider, among which I’m most interested in La Conquistadora (#2). She’s got plenty of pedigree, by 15-percent juvenile debut sire Nyquist, out of a dam who has produced solid allowance types Masked Marauder and Runnin’ Ray. Caribbean Breeze (#9) is also bred to be a runner, as a half-sister to the stakes-placed Let Her Inspire U.

:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct

RACE 6: DEEP COVER (#5)

My top two picks engaged in a cutthroat duel through a sub-21 quarter when they met at this level on June 26 at Belmont. However, I doubt they will go at it quite so aggressively here as they meet again. Not Phar Now (#1) comes in looking like the horse to beat off his last performance. He got run down by a pretty good rival at the open claiming level three weeks ago at Saratoga, arguably running the best race in defeat. He’s a true sprinter who does his best work when he can shake loose up front. However, I suspect he’s going to take plenty of action first off the claim for Brad Cox, who wins at a high rate with this move. I prefer Deep Cover (#5). He was taken out of his comfort zone when chasing Not Phar Now through those suicidal fractions two back. I thought he rebounded nicely last time, and probably would have won if not for an indecisive ride. He was always in a worse position than the eventual winner that day after Eric Cancel conceded the early lead and then was forced to alter course in upper stretch when Irad Ortiz Jr. on the winner dared him to go inside before taking away that path. Cancel retains the mount, but he now draws outside his main pace rival, which should help him work out a clean trip. The only other horse I would consider is Battle Station (#9), who put in a nice performance at this level two back. He was a little wide against a slightly tougher field last time and has a right to take a step forward second off the claim for Linda Rice.

RACE 9: SPICY GINGER (#2)

I suppose Birthday Time (#9) could vie for favoritism in this finale as she picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. in her second start off the claim for Joe Sharp. While it appears she put in a decent effort last time, she got a perfect trip sitting on the rail at a time when that was the place to be. I much prefer Lady Firefoot (#4) out of that race. This filly has run better than it appears in both starts. She was steadied repeatedly in the early stages of her debut when racing greenly. Then last time, though she finished behind Birthday Time, ran the better race after getting hung wide on both turns while racing against the rail bias. I don’t love the cutback in distance following a stretch-out, but I do think she’s the horse to beat. George Weaver has entered an uncoupled pair of contenders. Always Connected (#1) has the more immediately appealing form, as she ran pretty well in both turf starts last season. However, now she drops in class, and her form appeared to tail off a bit last year. I prefer Weaver’s other runner Spicy Ginger (#2). She was away slowly in her debut and made a mild move to catch up to the pack before flattening out in the stretch. While her pedigree isn’t overtly turfy, her best sibling Cotton Candy Cutie did run well on the surface without winning. She was entered and scratched from a maiden special weight on turf early in the Saratoga meet, and has reportedly worked well on the grass upstate. I think she can improve on this surface, and the addition of blinkers could help her get more engaged in the early going.