The Belmont Stakes drew a hefty field of 12 but does not include the winner of either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness. Six different horses comprised the trifectas from the two races, and among those runners, only Derby runner-up Lookin At Lee and Preakness show horse Senior Investment are in the field. Neither has much early speed, but that may not be a bad thing in light of the TimeformUS Pace Projector. The Pace Projector expects the pace to be fast. A few factors led to this conclusion – the big field, four horses being assigned running styles of Leader/Speed/Tracker, and the top three being rated closely together on the front end. It should be noted that the longer the race, the tougher it is to predict the pace. The strategy of the riders often takes precedence over raw speed at longer distances, and when it comes to Grade 1 races on dirt, the Belmont is as long as it gets. The predicted early leader is Irish War Cry (#7), and with good reason. He is always on or near the lead, and the pace has been very fast in two of his last three races, as noted by the pace figures or fractions being highlighted in red in TimeformUS Past Performances. While he faltered both times, he was also wide around the first turn in both for very tough trips. Those sandwiched his win in the Wood Memorial, where he was able to rate a little off the pace and win easily. If he doesn’t lead, it will almost surely be Meantime (#9) who is the pacesetter. He has led early in both of his two-turn starts, and his lone win came in wire-to-wire fashion. He hasn’t, however, run nearly as fast as Irish War Cry early, so he’ll need to do more to get to the front from an outside post. Gormley (#3) is shown third in the Pace Projector, but it won’t be a surprise if he is farther back. The Pace Projector looks at the last five races, and at one time, Gormley was running on or near the lead. Before the Santa Anita Derby, trainer John Shirreffs indicated that Gormley would use an off-the-pace running style, and he did just that to win that day. He was once again not a pace presence in the Kentucky Derby, so if the pace is hot, he most likely won’t be a part of it. Epicharis (#11) is a wild card in his first North American start. His ratings are based on his race in Dubai, the UAE Derby, where he led for most of the race before settling for second behind Kentucky Derby starter Thunder Snow. While he did show speed, the race wasn’t very highly rated, and he may struggle to keep up with the fastest horses he has faced to date. The horse most likely to be closer than indicated in the Pace Projector is Twisted Tom (#1). His last race was his longest to date at nine furlongs, and he showed more speed than in the past. His pace figure after a half mile was a 133 over a sloppy track. If he can transfer that speed to a fast track from his inside post position, he could be much closer and even lead if really sent hard. The TimeformUS Late Pace Ratings measure how fast horses are expected to run the final portion of a race, from the official second call to the wire. The second call of the Belmont Stakes comes after 10 furlongs, so this will be the last quarter-mile. The top five Late Pace Ratings look like this: Lookin At Lee (#6) has a clear edge of eight points over the next-highest rating, Hollywood Handsome (#5) at 112. He also has the best overall TimeformUS Speed Figures of the group and shouldn’t mind the extra distance. His TimeformUS Breeding Rating for dirt routes is a 76, compared with only a 52 for dirt sprints. If one of the closers is to win this race, he is the likeliest. J Boys Echo did run a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure in winning the Gotham Stakes and has had troubled trips in the last two without doing a lot of running. The others should only be considered as trifecta and superfecta candidates barring a complete pace meltdown.