Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 5:03 p.m. (ET) I regard morning-line favorite A Bourbon for Toby (#2) as the horse to beat, but I'm starting to get a little tired of him. I've tried this horse a few times recently, and he's run the best race without winning in each of his last three starts. He's prone to getting difficult trips, but he's often the cause of his own trouble. He tends to break a step slowly, which puts his riders in a difficult position. He has made early, wide moves in each of those last two starts, which takes away from his ability to finish in the last furlong. He now gets another rider change to Irad Ortiz, and if he can finally break cleanly he's likely to win. I just don't totally trust him to do it. There are some intriguing first time turfers in this lineup. One of those is Limo (#6), who sold for $1 million as a yearling. He debuted out of the Wilson Chute, and ran like a horse who probably needed the race. The transition to turf should suit him, since Uncle Mo is a good turf sire, and the dam's family is full of international grass influences. I'm even more interested in the Chad Brown-trained Iron Sight (#3) getting on turf for the first time. This horse has shown hints of ability on dirt, but he's another who struggles to get out of the gate cleanly. There's some talent here if he can get over his bad habits, and he still has a right to do so in just his third start. He got rained off the turf last time, and now Brown brings him back in another turf race while moving up in class. I take that as a good sign for a horse who has enough pedigree to handle the surface. My top pick is the other Chad Brown trainee Dirand (#11), who makes the third start of his career looking for another step forward. He actually met a decent field in his debut at Monmouth, and gradually closed into a slow pace without threatening. He stepped up against a tougher group last time when he came to Saratoga, and showed marked improvement. Manny Franco gave him a good ride to save ground early, but he launched a three-wide bid on the far turn and was the only horse closing late in a race dominated by a rail-skimming frontrunner. This Irish-bred son of Sottsass is a half-brother to Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile winner Uni, and I think he has further upside as he gets some added distance.