Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:10 p.m. (ET)   Certified Loverboy (#2) is clearly the horse to beat in this optional claimer, where he is one of just two horses competing for the second-level allowance condition. He tried this level three times earlier in the summer, two of those being dirt races where he went favored and settled for second. He has been popular with the bettors ever since getting claimed by Fernando Abreu back in February, going off as the favorite in each of his last seven dirt starts. He's only won twice during that time, but he's held his form pretty well, showing a consistent set of TimeformUS Speed Figures in excess of 110. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will lead this field early in a scenario favoring frontrunners, yet that obvious pace advantage will also ensure another short price on a horse who hasn't exactly been a win machine through his career.     The other Abreu trainee, Wynstock (#3), isn't without a chance himself, but his lack of early speed could hinder his chances given the likely pace scenario. He was ridden forward to make a middle move last time before flattening out, and the connections are likely to correct by reserving him off the pace this time. He did run well closing into a slow pace on June 14, but that was in a softer off-the-turf New York-bred race.   Noted (#4) went to the lead on turf last time, but he's not a natural frontrunner and may not possess the early speed to apply much pressure to the favorite. He still has to be considered a contender in this race as he switches back to dirt. While he's spent most of his career on turf, he's won two of his three lifetime dirt starts, including a win over a wet track in May. Distance doesn't seem to be an issue for him, and Gustavo Rodriguez is a trainer who excels with his dirt routers.   My top pick is Strapped (#1), who doesn't appear to possess much speed but gets a significant rider switch back to Ruben Silvera, who was able to get this horse more involved early in his races when riding him through the winter and spring. It's easy to excuse his recent form. He never had a chance to get involved behind gate-to-wire winner Film Star when facing a better field two back, and he had little chance last time in the Birdstone when trying stakes foes over a marathon distance. He's getting class relief as he returns to Aqueduct, where he has achieved all five of his career victories. Rudy Rodriguez's barn was pretty cold at Saratoga, but it has woken up lately since racing has moved downstate.