Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Patience N Grace adds blinkers for turnback in distance

Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | Post Time 2:15 p.m. (ET)

The horses with experience in this statebred maiden event aren't exactly trustworthy, so focus naturally shifts to the first-time starters. The one likely to attract the most support is Red Velvet Cake (#3), who debuts for Melanie Giddings. This daughter of 12 percent debut sire Lord Nelson is a half-sister to Grade 2 Phoenix winner Federal Judge, who was one of the top sprinters in the country last year. However, there isn't much pedigree on the dam's side beyond that standout sibling. This barn has won with some firsters, but is just 2 for 34 (6%, $0.56 ROI) with horses debuting on dirt.

The first-time starter I prefer is Brokealltherules (#7), a $165k yearling purchase who has taken over two years to finally make it to the races. She's by 13 percent debut sire Frosted out of a winning dam who produced allowance-level sprinter Scoot Daddy. Rick Dutrow isn't known for debut success, but this filly sports a very steady work tab.

Among those with experience, Sunshine Lily (#5) is the horse to beat. She had a legitimate excuse when last seen finishing up the track at Saratoga. She stumbled very badly at the start, and could never recover, chasing a runaway winner. She has run well over this course and distance, and it's easy to excuse a prior turf experiment. I don't love the way her form has declined since coming into Greg DiPrima's barn, but she is obviously dangerous if she can rebound here.

My top pick is Patience N Grace (#8), who returns from a minor layoff to make the third start of her career. She showed some promise on debut when passing over half the field with a rail rally back in late March. She then attempted to stretch out to a mile for her second start, but was unable to sustain a wide bid and faded through the lane. That race's winner Material Girl is better than any of the rivals she is facing here. Patience N Grace didn't want to go that far anyway, and now she turns back to a sprint following a freshening. She returns with blinkers added after training well in that equipment this summer at the Spa, and the outside draw should allow her to use more of the tactical speed she started to develop this spring.