Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Outside draw should benefit Leo and Royal

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET)

Potential favorite Signal Corps (#3) generated some hype when he debuted early last year, going off at 6-5 and delivering a winning performance. He was geared down late but only after coming under significant pressure to put that field away. He was off for a long time after that, and did show some improvement upon returning last month, while obviously not justifying the wagering support. He lacked some speed, but was staying on well late in a race dominated towards the front end. Now he stretches out, and Pletcher is 10 for 36 (28%, $1.28 ROI) with horses going from sprints to dirt routes second off a 180-360 day layoff. However, he has more of a sprint pedigree overall and figures to take money again.

I’m a little more interested in another who figures to attract wagering support. Shpilkes (#8) was in great form last year, winning 4 of 7 starts competing on both dirt and turf. While he was uncompetitive in his lone trip to the NYRA circuit, he was affected by a spill into the far turn, and basically eased after that. He got right back on track when returned to Parx in the fall, recently reeling off a pair of victories. In both of those starts this guy looked beaten in upper stretch before finding another gear late. His form makes him a contender, but his lack of early speed is a minor concern in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of pace.

Locke and Key (#9) is another logical player. The main question for him is the stretch-out, since he really seemed to wake up over the summer when he was turned back in distance on dirt. He comes off a loss as the favorite at this level, but he was mildly compromised by a lack of pace. He did run reasonably well going longer on turf and synthetic early in his career, so he should be competitive here going a mile as long as some pace develops.

My top pick is Leo and Royal (#10). At first glance he looks like a Finger Lakes specialist, since that’s where he’s achieved all of his victories. However, he has run the two best speed figures of his career at Aqueduct recently, so perhaps he's just improving overall. He ran deceptively well on Nov. 18 when chasing an honest pace that came apart. He then didn’t seem to appreciate the rail draw last time, rushing up into a precarious position inside the leaders before fading. He was only sixth across the wire, but he never completely threw in the towel, battling on despite that poor position on the track. I don’t mind him stretching back out, and his tactical speed should make him dangerous from the outside post in a race that doesn’t feature that much early speed.