Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: No Surrender can take down vulnerable favorite
Aqueduct | Race 1 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET)
Andy Cant (#3) figures to go off a short price in the opener as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. The Bill Mott trainee has run plenty of races that are superior to those of his rivals in this $20k maiden claimer. However, he went to the sidelines last summer and his return from the layoff last time left a lot to be desired. He was clearly facing a much better field than this, but he also had little to offer that day, chasing the pace early before fading badly though the stretch. Even when the gelding was at his best, he wasn’t the strongest finisher, often getting a look at the lead in upper stretch and flattening out approaching the wire. The 0-for-13 maiden has had plenty of chances to break through and probably doesn’t have much upside, even as he makes his second start off the layoff. This is not the kind of favorite I want to endorse at a short price.
The problem becomes finding the right alternative. Lightly raced options like King of France (#8) and Pappou’s Laugh (#7) merit some consideration. The former does seem like a horse who wants more ground after debuting at six furlongs. He just didn’t run particularly well that day and needs to improve quite a bit if he’s to be successful here. Pappou’s Laugh drops out of a race at the same $40k level, and gets minor class relief. He showed speed and faded, so perhaps he’ll be forwardly placed stretching out to a mile. I just suspect he’s more of a turf horse, since he’s bred to relish grass and looks like one who is better suited to that surface.
My top pick is the other Rudy Rodriguez runner, No Surrender (#6). He seems fairly reliable, having competed well at this level in each of his four most recent starts. He didn’t get away from the gate that well when he tried nine furlongs on Jan. 1 and got an awkward rated trip after aggressive handling early. He then was never quite on the rail on Jan. 19, a day that featured a strong inside bias. That pace completely fell apart and he did well to just miss after contesting those fractions. Then last time the rail was perhaps not the best place to be on Feb. 10, and he was game to keep battling inside while behind the favored winner. He handles the distance and is getting a rider upgrade to Manny Franco.