Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | Post Time 4:05 p.m. (ET)   The horse I set as the morning line favorite in this state-bred allowance, Mommy's Turn (#5), is an enigma for bettors. Anyone who watches the entirety of her maiden victory can see that this filly possesses ample talent. She crossed the wire a decisive two lengths ahead of her foes despite having an eventful journey. She was too keen through the early stages, pulling on the reins through the first half of the race while throwing her head around. She eventually settled on the backstretch but then tried to move too quickly once asked to quicken on the final turn, steadying in traffic again. She eventually found a seam between horses in the lane and burst through to victory with impressive acceleration. If she can put it all together this time, she will prove too much for this group to handle. However, potential backers have to be somewhat concerned about how temperamental she appears to be, especially given the prospect of a short price.   The obvious alternative is North End Lady (#1), who ran pretty well against open company in Florida over the winter. She ran into a talented rival in the subsequently stakes-placed Joyful Lass two back and was hardly disgraced finishing third against a tougher field than this. However, she was competing for a different trainer down south, and her prior form on this circuit doesn't inspire quite as much confidence.   A couple of fillies who competed at this level in a May 17 allowance event have a right to run better here. Trail of Gold (#7) has not gotten ideal trips in her last couple of starts on turf. She was three-wide around both turns when she made her grass debut in early May, and she again failed to save ground when she returned in that May 17 affair last time. She now gets a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, but that also figures to drag down her price. My top pick is Grace and Grit (#6), who finished just ahead of that rival when they met on May 17. That was this filly's return from a winter layoff and her first start as a new 3-year-old, so she stands to have further upside coming out of that performance. Furthermore, John Kimmel is not a trainer who cranks his horses up to win off layoffs and is much more successful when those horses get a start or two under their belts. Grace and Grit did win over this distance as a 2-year-old, then she got totally eliminated in a dramatic incident at the quarter pole of the Miss Grillo next time. She never quite got back on track after that, but her return last month was a step back in the right direction. Manny Franco rode her like she would need that race, not allowing her to display her customary early speed. I expect her to get a more aggressive ride this time under regular rider Kendrick Carmouche.