Thursday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Camera finally gets to try two turns on dirt
Saratoga | Race 7 | Post Time 4:35 p.m. (ET)
Headline Numbers (#7) took significant money to get bet down to 8-5 on debut and ran to the support, inhaling the leaders approaching the quarter pole before drawing off to a commanding score. Her 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is certainly good enough to make her a contender as she steps up against winners, but she figures to be a very short price again. I’m concerned that her debut hasn’t exactly been flattered by runbacks. The second-place finisher returned to regress by 7 TimeformUS Speed Figure points, and the third-place finisher regressed by 27 points next time out. I would rather explore some alternatives that promise to offer better value.
Standoutsensation (#5) didn’t get a chance to participate in a similar spot last time, as she was declared a non-starter after getting held in the gate when the runner to her outside broke through just prior to the start. I had liked her heading into that race, since she was exiting a deceptively strong allowance event at Churchill and had previously run respectably against tougher company. She’s worked well since that mishap, and appears to be a contender in this spot.
Todd Pletcher has entered two fillies in here. Fade to Grey (#3) may attract more attention off her flashy 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure victory at this distance last time, but I’m more interested in his other runner.
At first glance, Camera (#1) looks like a turf horse. When switched to that surface, she got a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest number in this field, which was validated when winner Buttercream Babe subsequently finished third against males in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. Camera wasn’t as successful last time, but she got too aggressive wearing blinkers for the first time. She fought her rider before running off in front along with Mixologist, who rebounded to win here via disqualification last week. The switch back to dirt is the big question for Camera, but it’s possible that it was the steadier pace of two-turn racing rather than the surface switch that moved her up. She should have a chance to control up front from her rail draw, and she trains like a filly who wants to run all day. Pletcher is astute at determining which of his horses want this trip, as he is 38 for 123 (31%, $2.10 ROI) in 9-furlong dirt races at Saratoga over 5 years, and 6 for 12 (50%, $2.73 ROI) going from turf to dirt within that sample.