If the New Orleans weather forecast holds, Saturday’s Black Gold Stakes might not remain on the turf. Carded for 3-year-olds going about 1 1/16 miles on grass, the Black Gold could be run over the main track following moderate to heavy rain Thursday night into Friday night. A surface switch is not what the connections of Can Group had in mind, since Can Group just underwent his dirt experiment. Trainer Mark Casse sent Can Group from Florida to Fair Grounds in late December to give the colt one chance to get onto the Kentucky Derby trail. Can Group never factored in the Jan. 20 Lecomte Stakes, finishing sixth by 16 lengths, but on turf the horse is a different animal. By Good Samaritan, Can Group was switched from dirt to turf in his third start last year at age 2 and immediately came to life, winning a rich Kentucky Downs maiden race. In a race with a blanket finish where several horses had tougher trips, Can Group managed to win the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland by a nose. But Can Group validated that victory four weeks later in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where he turned in the race’s fastest final quarter-mile, 22.74 seconds, closing from last of 11 to finish a good fourth. :: Bet with the Best! Get FREE All-Access PPs and Weekly Cashback when you wager on DRF Bets. While the Fair Grounds course has not recently been especially kind to deep closers, that kind of late burst probably would propel Can Group and leading rider Jareth Loveberry to victory, though they do face at least one worthy foe in Neat. Trained by Rob Atras, who has a string at Fair Grounds for the first time, Neat flopped debuting late last summer at Kentucky Downs but since has gone 3 for 3 on turf. On Jan. 7, he led most of the way winning the Texas Turf Mile at Sam Houston, and though Neat is not likely to shake loose on the lead in the Black Gold, he could encounter a wet course, as was the case at Sam Houston. Neat got his own dirt chance in the Gun Runner Stakes in December and didn’t run a step, and neither he nor Can Group figures to factor if the Black Gold is switched to the main track. On dirt, Bear River, Yo Daddy, and Count Dracula look like the leading candidates. The Black Gold is the last of three Saturday stakes following a pair of Louisiana-bred races, the Eddie Johnston Memorial and the Red Camelia, also carded for grass. Turf or dirt, Behemah Star is the horse to beat in the Eddie Johnston, though the Red Camelia lacks any such clarity. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.