Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Smokey Smokey gets another chance on turf in Paradise Creek
Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | Post Time 4:42 p.m. (ET)
The expected scratch of Works for Me takes some pace out of this race, which could affect the chances of Sketch (#4). Yet this 3-year-old still has a right to do better in his second start off the layoff, and it’s not as if he has to improve that much on his return in the William Walker. He got off a step slowly and was rated at the back before launching a strong late rally in a race that was won on the front end. That 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him in the mix, and he isn’t supposed to mind getting an extra half-furlong this time. I do think he’s the horse to beat, but he will need to work out a trip from off the pace.
Main rival Apollo Ten (#5) ran well to break his maiden over this course last fall with a strong 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He subsequently disappointed when he tried stakes company in the Atlantic Beach before getting a winter break. He returned last month at Gulfstream with a strong performance going five furlongs, beating heavy favorite Bonus Move with another fast speed figure. He now has to stretch out to six furlongs, but he should get a good stalking trip.
I think there are a couple of price horses to consider. Summer in Adriane (#8) ran well over this course in November, a race from which he was later awarded a maiden victory. He subsequently regressed at Fair Grounds, but he didn’t catch the ideal situations in a few of those races, since he doesn’t really want to go two turns. He cut back last time on this circuit facing older rivals in a tough allowance event. He only managed to finish fourth, but ran well considering that he got squeezed back early and was wide thereafter. He can continue his progression here.
My top pick is Smokey Smokey (#9). This horse has only sprinted on turf once in his career, on debut at Saratoga where he actually ran quite well. He got sent off at 26-1 and ran a big race to finish second, only losing to subsequent stakes winner Good Lord Lorrie. He stretched out after that, but didn’t seem to be quite as sharp in a pair of starts in Kentucky. From there he failed on dirt, and then moved to synthetic. He ran well to break his maiden in December, beating future stakes winner Epic Ride going this distance. He then found himself chasing extremely fast paces set by the fleet Joe Shiesty in March, and last time actually reeled that one in before getting overhauled by a closer. That has been a key race, from which multiple horses have returned to improve their speed figures. I like this Mike Maker trainee getting back to turf, and he might get somewhat overlooked off the hidden form.