Sunday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Great Lilo deserves another chance on turf
Saratoga | Race 3 | Post Time 2:14 p.m. (ET)
Waralo (#5) has to be considered the horse to beat after winning his first two starts on turf. The 112 and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figures he earned for those victories make him the fastest horse in this race, even as he steps up in class to face open company for the first time. In addition to the class hike, he also is attempting to turn back to 5 1/2 furlongs in a race that features a few horses that look a little faster in the early going. One of those is recent maiden winner Innate (#2), who won going this distance last month. He was returning from a lengthy layoff in that spot and was clearly ready to fire for a barn that usually has them ready to run their best off the bench. He was 20-1 that day and will be a fraction of that price here, but his early speed nevertheless makes him a contender.
Tap to Mischief (#4) is another who returned from a long layoff recently, staying in an off the turf race in June, 11 months after his debut victory. He probably wasn't running on his preferred surface that day, but he still put in a good effort to be third at this level. He showed ability in that lone turf start last year, and his stalking style should ensure that he works out a good trip sitting just behind the speed. Among the short prices, he's the one that I want to use most prominently.
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Great Lilo (#3) can make the lead, and I'll be interested to see if this horse's dirt speed finally translates to the turf. He's my top pick at what should be a generous price because I think he's run better than it appears in both prior turf starts. He wasn't the horse he's now become when he first tried this surface last year, and his one turf start this season was a solid fourth-place finish going five furlongs at Gulfstream. Those races featured exceptionally fast paces, and he was mildly shuffled back in the early stages. Yet I liked the way he sustained his strides through the stretch, making up ground in the final furlong, something we have never seen form him on dirt. He's bred to be a turf horse, out of a dam who was a turf sprint specialist. If he is able to outbreak this field, I think he'll prove tough to catch.