Belmont at the Big A | Race 3 | Post Time 2:03 p.m. (ET) Big Everest (#6) has done some of his best work at Aqueduct, achieving 4 of his 8 lifetime victories over this venue’s turf courses. He returned to this venue at today’s allowance level last time, contesting an honest pace before fading. Yet the two rivals who defeated him are hardly slouches, who worked out better trips. His TimeformUS Speed Figures, consistently at or above the 120 mark, would suggest that he has actually held his form reasonably well despite losing 4 of his last 5 starts. I view him as the horse to beat in here, but I am a little concerned about the stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles in a race that features other speed. Todd Pletcher has entered a pair of runners coming off layoffs, and I’m skeptical of both. Major Dude (#2) makes his 4-year-old debut following just under 10 months on the sidelines. He showed real talent early in his career, but his form tailed off later in the season, and it’s taken him a while to get back to the races. Steady On (#5) has been on the bench even longer, last competing on April 1 of 2023. He had just put forth the best effort of his career to win the Appleton Stakes, and it’s never a good sign when horses disappear after attaining top form.  Kalik (#7) looked like a rising force in his division last year after winning the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge before his form fell apart, disappointing in both the Belmont Derby and King’s Plate. He returned as a newly gelded 4-year-old last time and failed to deliver again. Yet he had a valid excuse that day, as he stumbled significantly at the start and was always out of position. I think he can bounce back with a more aggressive ride this time. I would just need a generous price to back him, and that may not be available with Irad Ortiz aboard. My top pick is Atone (#1). Becoming a Grade 1 winner might have been the worst thing that ever happened to this gelding. He achieved that feat when winning a watered down edition of the Pegasus World Cup Turf in early 2023. He’s been on a steady diet of graded stakes ever since, and has generally been regarded as a disappointment. Yet he was never a true Grade 1 quality performer. I would argue that the best race he’s ever produced came in the following year’s Pegasus World Cup Turf, where he faced a stronger field and got up for fourth at 34-1. Since then I can make a few excuses for him. He got the wrong trip in the Canadian Turf, attempting to launch a wide rally on the far turn. He then ran respectably on synthetic before encountering a boggy course that he doesn’t care for in the Dinner Party last time. He’s now dropping to a realistic level and getting his preferred firm turf. Kendrick Carmouche has ridden him well before, and I think we may finally see this horse get back to the winner’s circle.