In a selective marketplace where buyers and agents are looking to add perfect yearlings to their racing and breeding programs, radiographs of young horses have been used to narrow prospective targets. But can a scan of a still-developing horse accurately predict a horse’s potential as a racehorse? This year, data was released from a multi-year, multi-organizational research effort, launched in 2016 by Colorado State University to examine the long-term impacts of common radiographic findings in the stifles and sesamoids of sales yearlings. The results may change how radiographs are interpreted and discussed. “It’s something we’ve been waiting for for a long time,” said Allaire Ryan, sales director for Lane’s End Farm. “We’re grateful for all the people and the monumental effort that it took to get that off the ground and to get it completed.” The Thoroughbred sales radiology study was led by Drs. Wayne McIlwraith, Frances Peat, and Chris Kawcak of Colorado State University’s Orthopaedic Research Center; and Dr. Jeff Berk of Equine Medical Associates in Lexington, Ky., whose primary practice focus is international sales work. The Keeneland Association, Fasig-Tipton, and the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation all contributed funding. According to Berk, the study found that an abnormality shown on radiograph may not “negatively affect the suitability of that horse to become a racehorse.” “Everybody is looking for one of the really top horses, and you’d hate for that horse to be unfairly impugned and unfairly thrown aside because of findings that really don’t have the potential to be quite so negative as they might currently be perceived to be,” Berk said in a statement via Colorado State. “That’s not good for anybody. It’s not good for the sellers, it’s not good for the buyers, and it’s not good for the veterinarians. “It can be really distressing to a client when the veterinarian has assigned too much significance to a veterinary finding to the point where the client doesn’t buy the horse, and then they have to watch that horse race at a high level for someone else when they could have owned it for themselves.” The study began with the 2016 Keeneland September yearling sale, where repository radiographs were reviewed for 2,508 yearlings whose consignors consented to the study. The following year, 436 horses from that group who moved on to 2-year-old in training sales were reviewed again. The study also assessed the likelihood of those horses making it to the racetrack, following the early years of their careers. McIlwraith presented the findings on radiographs of the stifles, looking at lucencies – areas of decreased subchondral bone density – in a bone in that joint. Kawcak presented the findings on a study of the sesamoid bones, looking at abnormalities in those crucial structures. In both cases, the radiographs were rated, with veterinarians assigning classifications from Grade 0, that being a fairly normal presentation, through Grade 3 for the most severe findings. Following the release of the study, a number of consignors, breeders, and veterinarians opined that the grading system could make an immediate impact on discussions at sales. There was previously no standard system for describing radiographic findings, with vets using adjectives such as mild, slight, moderate, significant, severe, or other words to discuss the images, with those words being open to interpretation by a client. The grading system could lead to more standard and clear communication. “It adds a lot of clarity to what we do,” Dr. Scott Pierce of Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, said during a panel hosted by the Consignors and Commercial Breeders Association at Fasig-Tipton in Kentucky this summer. “We all know that sesamoiditis is way over-diagnosed. If we can have clarity, which we seem to have in this, it’s easier for us to be able to describe the actual lesion and the actual disease and be able to give a prognosis for those in racing.” In the study on stifle findings, many yearlings who had Grade 1 findings either showed no change before their 2-year-old sales appearance (45 percent of the group) or improved to Grade 0 (36 percent). Although smaller numbers of yearlings with Grade 2 or Grade 3 findings went to 2-year-old sales, they showed similar patterns. As these horses moved on, 85 percent of them started at least once by the end of their 4-year-old season. The study on sesamoid findings showed similar results on the lower end of the spectrum. Among those with Grade 1 findings in their vascular channels, 72 percent had improved to Grade 0 by the time they became 2-year-olds. The sesamoid study did show that horses with Grade 3 findings were older when they made their first start and had a reduction in their mean number of starts. However, that higher age of first start was still in the 2-year-old season, albeit several weeks later than horses with less severe findings. The study’s data on racing prognosis for horses with radiographic findings could be crucial for consignors, many of whom have anecdotal stories about horses being passed over due to less-than-perfect vetting. There are now data points to back up those arguments. “We’ve all seen as consignors or breeders, a horse gets knocked because he has an OCD lesion or sesamoiditis or something in a stifle,” Buckland Sales principal Zach Madden said. “I feel like it’s going to do everybody a world of good, just having these results. We all know horses we’ve sold who just got crushed at the sale, they didn’t bring what you think – and then you turn on the TV on Saturday afternoon and the horse just whistles by 10 lengths in a maiden special weight at some track.” Dr. Nathan Mitts of Peterson and Smith Equine Hospital in Florida also was enthusiastic about the study results, stating that the data is “assigning accurate relevance” to what radiographic findings mean for the horses long-term. “The confusion we’ve seen in the past creates inefficiencies in selling horses,” Mitts said. “It creates confusion in how [consignors] should market them and what our clients should expect.” Ryan, of Lane’s End Farm, cautioned that any true changes to the sales landscape are likely to be gradual in an industry that is known for making changes slowly. The study “was pretty eye-opening, in a good way, and hopefully will encourage people that are shopping in the commercial market to be more forgiving,” Ryan said. “But I think with anything, any kind of adjustment, it’s going to take time, as people have to become more familiar, more comfortable” with the data. Ultimately, this information is now in the hands of consignors, buyers, and veterinarians studying the radiographs of yearlings. The researchers anticipate more data becoming available in the future. Madden, of Buckland Sales, believes that the Thoroughbred industry is data-driven. “It’s good that we have the data,” he said. “What people choose to do with it, it’s a free world.”