Stats Guide: Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes

Last year’s race
Winner: Naval Crown
Jockey: James Doyle
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Owner: Godolphin
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 5lbs
Starting Price: 33/1
Season Form Figures: 104
Previous Best: 1st - Al Fahidi Fort Stakes (Group 2), Meydan (January 2022)

By Paul Jones

Previous Royal Ascot form has been a useful pointer, as 14 of the last 27 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before. In fact, last year’s Godolphin-owned 1-2, Naval Crown and Creative Force, had also finished 1-2 in the previous season’s Jersey Stakes, although the other way round. In addition, Dream Of Dreams had finished a close second in this race for the previous two years before making it third time lucky in 2021.

Whether it is the Berkshire course that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact that their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up, but I would argue that there is something in both arguments.

Continuing that theme, four years ago Blue Point emulated Choisir in completing the King’s Stand-Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee double on the opening and closing days of the meeting. Five of the last 20 winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes as have two of the last 11 runners-up, so look out for any of those.

Outside of previous Royal Ascot form the Duke Of York Stakes has been the best guide, as since 1992 ten Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip, with six finishing first or second before striking here. Azure Blue made the most of the 5lb and fitness advantage she had over Highfield Princess to beat her fellow filly by half a length last month.

Black Caviar was the last female winner 11 years ago (and only one since the race became a Group 1), and she was a bit special. Prior to that it was Posada back in 1988.

Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 16 of the last 28 runnings, but the only winning seasonal debutant in the last 40 years was Naval Crown last year, except for Hello Youmzain, which was due to Covid when the season was just two weeks old.

International raiders have a good record, with Choisir and Black Caviar winning for Australia, Cape Of Good Hope for Hong Kong, and Undrafted for America. Both of Aidan O’Brien’s winners, Starspangledbanner and Merchant Navy, were formerly trained in Australia. In addition, the Aussie pair of Takeover Target and Star Witness also finished third here, after winning and finishing second respectively in the King’s Stand, and three other American-trained horses have hit the frame since 2009, in addition to Wesley Ward’s Undrafted causing a mini-surprise.

There can be a huge difference between five and six furlongs at the top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra 220 yards at Group 1 standard. It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that 6f at Ascot races more like 6.5f, so maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over 6f prior to his victory since 1990. Five of the last seven winners had never run over 5f. In fact, only two of the last 21 winners had not run over at least 7f at some point.

As many as six favourites won between 1989-1997, but we had to wait until Starspangledbanner to put an end to the 13-year losing run of the market leader when he won as 13/2 joint-favourite in 2010 and five more favourites have also justified their position as market leader since, so it has been a profitable last decade for favourite backers. However, it has also been a race in which to chance some fancy-priced horses lately, as 10 of the last 23 winners started at a double-figure price, including Naval Crown at 33/1 last year.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Won or placed at Royal Ascot before
Won a Group or Listed race earlier in the season
Non-European trained contenders
Contested a 7f race at some stage
Never raced over 5f

Negatives:
Not won over 6f
Fillies/mares