Last year’s race Kyprios Winner: Kyprios Jockey: Ryan L Moore Trainer: Aidan P O'Brien Owner: Moyglare/Magnier/Tabor/Smith/Westerberg Age: 4 Weight: 9st 3lbs Starting Price: 13/8 Season Form Figures: 11 Previous Best: 1st - Saval Beg Levmoss Stakes (Group 3), Leopardstown (May 2022) With a significant number of last season’s top stayers not running this season, either due to retirement (including 3x winner Stradivarius) or injury (last season’s 1-2 in Kyprios and Mojo Star), and unless 2021 winner Subjectivist can bounce back to somewhere near his best after initially being retired due to injury, we are set for a new name on the trophy. Leading the way in the betting are two winners from Royal Ascot last year; Coltrane (Ascot Stakes), who has established himself as a top-class stayer since that handicap success by winning the Doncaster Cup and Sagaro Stakes (also finished runner-up here on Champions Day in between to Trueshan), and Eldar Eldarov (Queen’s Vase), who went on to win the St Leger and prepped for this with a good second in the Yorkshire Cup. Three Queen’s Vase winners since 2012 went on to win the following year’s Gold Cup and five in total during that limited time period, given that Stradivarius went on to win it twice more. Given his subsequent exploits, there has to be every chance that Kyprios would have made that four, as he was set to run in that race 12 months before he became the champion stayer but was withdrawn when becoming upset in the stalls. Coltrane was a ready winner of the Sagaro Stakes on his return. More recent Gold Cup winners Colour Vision (2012) and Estimate (2013) both contested that Group 3 trial too. Prior to Yeats, only one other winner going back to 1929 had been aged seven or older. Stradivarius tried and failed twice to become the next. Therefore, history tells us that only exceptional horses over the age of six tend to win the Gold Cup, and stayers don’t get much more exceptional than Yeats, who won here as a seven and eight-year-old. The Irish have won just over half of the last 17 Gold Cups and eight of those nine were trained by Aidan O’Brien, who is set to run Emily Dickinson here. Estimate was the last winning mare and prior to that it was Indian Queen in 1991. Emily Dickinson has gone down O’Brien’s favoured route of the Vintage Crop at Naas, which she won by 5 lengths, and the Saval Beg at Leopardstown, where she was only sixth as the 2/5 favourite behind Yashin. Seven of the last 14 British-trained Ascot Gold Cup winners contested the Henry II Stakes won by Roberto Escobarr. That contest at Sandown has been the most productive Gold Cup guide in recent years, supplying 10 of the last 29 winners - and of those ten winners, six were placed. Godolphin have won five Gold Cups going back to 1996 but look weak on staying talent at present. Ditto the French, who have won just one Gold Cup since Sagaro in 1977. Up until 2010 the previous 10 winners had won a Group 1 or 2 contest, but since then Rite Of Passage, Estimate, Trip To Paris and Kyprios have won the Gold Cup having not won previously at such a level. A total of 22 of the last 28 winners had won earlier in the season. As far as the market is concerned, 16 of the last 17 winners have been very findable, with no winner bigger than 7/1. Can the draw be a factor over 2m4f? The last six winners were drawn no higher than stall 7, so maybe there is something in that? At a glance summary POSITIVES Likely to start no bigger than 7/1 Trained by Aidan O’Brien Won a Queen’s Vase Won or placed over middle distances at Group 1 level Owned by Godolphin Contested the Henry II Stakes Won earlier in the season Drawn lower half NEGATIVES Aged 6+