Stats Guide: Ascot Stakes

Winner: Coltrane

Jockey: Callum Hutchinson

Trainer: A M Balding

Owner: Mick And Janice Mariscotti

Age: 5

Weight: 9st 10lbs

Starting Price: 14/1

Season Form Figures: 2

Previous Best: 2nd - Chester Cup, Chester (May 2022)

By Paul Jones

Despite Reshoun winning at 66/1 two years ago the Ascot Stakes has unquestionably the most punter-friendly handicap at the meeting with 12 of the last 14 winners sent off at no bigger than 14/1 and, in the last 33 years, as a many as 22 winners could be found in the first six in the betting.

There are no strong individual race guides (the Chester Cup has the best record) and there used to be a draw angle when there were bigger fields but I didn’t think so after the safety factor was cut from 30 to 20. However, of late low numbers have fared best with four of the last seven winners drawn no higher than stall 6 and last season’s 1-2-3-4 emerged from the seven lowest stalls and the first six were drawn no higher than 11 in 2021.

Six of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland but they were not allowed to travel over for the 2020 running due to Covid regulation for non-Class 1 races so that reads even better.

Willie Mullins has won four runnings since 2012 and has also saddled four runners-up after M C Muldoon (beaten a short-head) and Bring On The Night only found one too good in the last two runnings. In fact, when Lagostovegas won five years ago, she led home a Mullins-trained 1-2-4-5. She was also the fourth successful filly or mare in the last 15 years from low representation. Fillies/mares have also finished second in the last two of the last four runnings.

The last two runners-up and the 2020 1-2 had been running over hurdles during the winter. Both winners were trained by recognised dual-purpose trainers in Alan King and Ian Williams, who, was winning it for a second time.

It should be pointed out that virtually every trainer does hold a flat and jumps licence but I like to concentrate on trainers better known for their jumps horses with Willie Mullins (x4), Charles Byrnes, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe, Suzy Smith, Paul Webber, Tony Martin (x2 and two more placed) and Jarlath Fahey also all better known for jump racing taking this prize this century and Martin Pipe won it four times between 1993-2003.

The Ascot Stakes used to be very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds but seven of the last nine winners were aged between six and nine (five of which were trained in Ireland). Prior to those Irish-trained victories, 15 of the previous 19 winners emerged from that 4-5 age bracket.

Horses carrying less than 9st had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last few years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st and the class acts are coming to the fore.

Last season’s winner for example, Coltrane, is ante-post favourite for the Gold Cup a year on. The Grand Visir overcame top weight four years ago and three other winners going back to 2012 carried 9st 10lb. In 2020 the top weight, Verdana Blue, finished second under 9st 10lb with the second-top weight, Summer Moon, finishing third.

At a glance summary

Positives:
Trained by a primarily jumps-based stable
Trained in Ireland (notably Willie Mullins)
Start in the first six in the betting
Drawn in the lower half (preferably lower third)
Mares

Negatives:
British-trained contenders aged older than five
Likely to be sent off at over 14/1