Aqueduct | Race 7 | Post Time 3:05 p.m. (ET) The likely favorite in this first-level allowance is Vettriano (#11), who steps back up in class after clearing all of his New York-bred conditions. He had to work a bit harder than expected as the 2-5 favorite when fending off Whatchatalkinabout last time, and now he’s meeting a few rivals with similar credentials. He seems to do best when he can race up front and clear of the field, but there are others in here who want to attain forward position. He’s obviously a contender, but I’m not inclined to take him at a short price. Locke and Key (#6) is making the same class jump, but he beat the same foe that Vettriano edged out last time, and will be a much better price than that rival. He has clearly appreciated the return to dirt after settling for minor awards in his recent turf efforts, and should get some pace ahead of him. Skylander (#10) figures to attract support off two recent victories against weaker company. He improved significantly first off the claim for the Rick Dutrow barn last time, beating starter allowance foes with a career-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was going a mile, but he has won at this 7-furlong distance in the past. I just want to see him produce that effort again before I can back him in a spot like this, since he’s not really competitive based on his prior form. If I’m going to take a horse with one competitive effort, I would rather go for Magnificent Mile (#1) at a bigger price. He has risen out of lesser claiming races this fall, but keeps rising to the challenge as he moves up in class. He faded to fourth at this level last time, but ran exceptionally well, chasing a quick pace that came apart and making an early, wide move before fading. His 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied for the highest last-out number in this field. A mile is probably too far for him, and he should appreciate this slight cutback in distance for connections that have been dangerous at this meet. My top pick is Trust Issues (#3), who ships in from Kentucky for trainer Michelle Lovell. This barn has been pretty effective when shipping horses to the NYRA circuit, going 4 for 8 (50%, $3.31 ROI) in New York over the past 5 years. This gelding showed some talent early on before a couple of failed turf experiments. He has since improved getting back on dirt this summer, earning a competitive 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure when chasing home the talented Senior Officer and then breaking his maiden impressively next time out. He lost his first attempt at this level in November, but he got bumped and squeezed back at the start before being relegated to a wide trip in a slow-paced race. He’s capable of better than that, and he looks like a candidate to appreciate this slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs.