Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Smooth Breeze has upside facing open company in Pilgrim
Belmont at the Big A | Race 11 | Post Time 5:17 p.m. (ET)
Likely favorite Zulu Kingdom (#4) won his debut in France very easily, drawing away from overmatched competition. He was privately purchased out of that race, and subsequently made his debut for the Chad Brown barn in the With Anticipation at Saratoga. He got bet like a good thing, and delivered on the track. While he did get a great trip under Flavien Prat, saving ground in the pocket on the turns, he showed some determination to close inside of horses through the lane. His 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the clear horse to beat, but it’s possible that we haven’t yet seen the best of several rivals and his form may be more exposed.
Chad Brown’s other entrant Early Adopter (#8) merits a look at a better price. He won his debut quite professionally late in the Saratoga meet. He worked his way over to the inside early and saved ground on the turns before angling out to make his rally at the quarter pole. There wasn’t anything flashy about his turn of foot, but he gradually wore down the leaders to prove best. Chad Brown has fantastic stats with horses in spots like this. Over 5 years, he is 10 for 34 (29%, $2.52 ROI) with 2-year-old last-out debut winners making their seconds starts, finishing in the money with a remarkable 29 of those 34 starters. This colt seems like a candidate to take a step forward.
Concord Green (#5) is another Saratoga debut winner who could attract some support, but I thought he got a very favorable trip on debut. He was professional racing inside of horses early, but he did get to save ground over the inner turf course during a week when the rail path was an advantage. The pace of that race also completely fell apart, which aided his late run. He has upside, but may need a step forward.
Noble Confessor (#1) offers some intrigue as he tries turf for the first time. He ran better than it looks in his second start when racing wide against a track favoring inside paths. He has plenty of turf pedigree, being by Quality Road out of a dam who is a half-sister to turf stakes winners Sweet Melania and Sweet Rebecca. His early speed could prove dangerous from the inside.
My top pick is Smooth Breeze (#6), who could go off as one of the biggest prices in the field, largely due to the fact that he only beat New York-breds on debut. However, he displayed some likable qualities that day, as he broke sharply but was content to rate behind the leaders early. He wanted to lug in a bit in upper stretch and it took Ricardo Santana a while to work him into the clear;. Yet he visibly quickened his stride once he finally found daylight, running over the top of the leader before galloping out strongly. His 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure is similar to the numbers achieved by other debut winners in this field, and I think he has more upside than any of them. He also showed tactical speed first time out that should allow him to get forward position in a race lacking much pace.