Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Pirate ready to progress in new barn

Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 4:07 p.m. (ET)

Chileno (#8) figures to attract support off a blowout victory in his first start off the claim for the Brad Cox barn. That was only a $35k conditioned claimer, but he drew off to a six-length win while earning a career-best 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number would likely put him in the winner’s circle here, but I do have some concerns about the quality of that race. Even though it came up fast on both the Beyer and TimeformUS scales, the two horses who finished directly behind Chileno both regressed significantly in their subsequent starts. This is a much tougher assignment for a horse who was only picking up minor awards at this level even when he was in peak form for Linda Rice.

Bourbon Chase (#5) seems like a more reliable option among the short prices. He’s also stepping up in class, but he’s exiting some fairly strong New York-bred optional claimers and it’s unclear that this open allowance came up that much tougher than those affairs. He ran especially well in defeat two back when he was contesting a fast pace that collapsed and stayed on for third. Then last time he finally got back to the winner’s circle after a string of minor awards. It appears he’s in the best form of his career right now for Mike Maker and he possesses dangerous tactical speed in a race that lacks much pace.

Reynolds Channel (#9) is difficult to assess since his two attempts at this level in his last couple of starts have been mildly disappointing. More was expected of him when he dropped in class to this level in September but he just split the field while finishing a dull sixth. He did better last time off a brief freshening, but would still have to improve on that performance to beat this group. He did run well over the summer at Saratoga, and now gets an interesting rider switch to Sahin Civaci, who has ridden very well over the past couple of weeks.

My top pick is Pirate (#2), who looks like the stronger half of the Jamie Ness coupled entry. He might be a little tough to endorse off his recent performances for Todd Pletcher, since he’s finished no better than third in seven prior attempts at this level. However, he has shown some hints of talent along the way, such as when he finished third in the Grade 1 Hopeful in the second start of his career. Recently he’s been trying longer two-turn distances, but I like him cutting back to a one-turn mile here since he ran well going shorter early in his career. Yet the primary reason to upgrade this horse is that he’s been privately purchased since his last start and transferred to Ness. The Ness barn is a remarkable 19 for 51 (37%, $3.28 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt routes over five years. He also seems to do well with the higher quality stock that he ships to NYRA.