Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Lotsa Trouble's recent form better than looks
Belmont at the Big A | Race 9 | Post Time 5:14 p.m. (ET)
Mighty Atlas (#5) has to be considered the horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance optional claiming race after winning at this level in his most recent start. He now races for the optional $45,000 tag in this same condition. He's gotten back into top form for the Mike Miceli barn after tailing off earlier this winter. His versatile running style should ensure that he works out a fair trip, and he just makes plenty of sense as a contender. The only downside is that he's coming in with exposed form and figures to get bet accordingly.
Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of entrants, of which Crimson Light (#4) figures to be the much shorter price. This colt turned many heads on debut over a year ago when he veered into the rail at the start and recovered to rally from far back past the entire field. It took him 15 months to get back to the races, but he registered a vastly improved speed figure in his return last month. He's now stepping up in class, still with upside, but he figures to be a short price with something to prove.
My top pick is his Pletcher-trained stablemate Lotsa Trouble (#3). This gelding's form looks pretty inconsistent at first glance, but he's had excuses in his poor efforts and has run better than it may look in a few of those recent results. He obviously wanted no part of going nine furlongs when he was still cycling back into form following his return last fall. He got that confidence booster against claimers in December, and has since been in two incredibly difficult spots. No one was beating subsequent stakes winner Whatchatalkinabout in that six-furlong event at this level, but Lotsa Trouble was running on best of all across the wire. Last time, he again found himself too far back in the early stages but was finishing with good interest behind a breakout performance from winner Quick to Accuse. Both of those races are color-coded as featuring slow paces in TimeformUS, which clearly doesn't suit him. He hasn't yet won at this one-mile distance, but he produced a career-best 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure at this trip last time. I think he's capable of better here as long as Ricardo Santana Jr. keeps him a bit more engaged early.