Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Five Bars should improve with added ground in Frizette

Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | Post Time 2:49 p.m. (ET)

The two fastest fillies in terms of speed figures in this Frizette both impressed during the Saratoga meet but now must prove they can carry their brilliant speed over a mile. Iron Orchard (#6) won both starts up at the Spa, looking obviously superior to the New York-bred and auction-restricted foes that she defeated in those races. She won by decisive margins that could have been even larger had she not been geared down in the final sixteenths of each race. Yet now she's stepping up against tougher foes and stretching out. She's dangerous, but she's not the type of horse I want at a short price. The same is true for fellow short price Carmel Coast (#2), who busted out of the gate and never looked back in her Saratoga debut. Yet she looked like more of a sprinter to me that day, and I'll be mildly surprised if she's quite as effective going longer, especially drawn inside of so much other speed.

I prefer the filly who finished behind Carmel Coast in that debut. Lovely Christina (#11) came back to win her next start 21 days later, fighting off multiple challenges to pull clear at six furlongs. She's another who has to answer the distance questions, but we have seen progeny of Vekoma stretch out. She is at least drawn outside of other speed, so she should have a better opportunity to get into a comfortable rhythm.

I do think there's a chance for this race to come apart. That would help a horse like Rina's Revenge (#4), who only beat New York-breds in her lone start. Yet she did it professionally, closing from well back to pull clear with authority in the late stages. She's bred to love added ground as a half-sister to dirt route winners Call Her Bluff and King's Leap.

My top pick won't be as big of a price as that one but is a more likely winner. Five Bars (#9) didn't get much of a speed figure for her debut victory at Saratoga, but she did it like a horse with stakes potential. She got absolutely slammed between rivals at the start, checking sharply back to last. Most horses who experience that much adversity at the break of their first starts never recover, but she found her stride and got back into the race. She put in a terrific rally between horses to get up for the win. The pace did benefit her, but she still did it like a horse who was simply superior to her competition on that occasion. She's as convincing as anyone in this field for the stretch-out in distance, and she should get a fair pace ahead of her once again.