Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET) Devil’s Cay (#6) is probably the horse to beat as he drops back down to the same level at which he was claimed two back by Tom Morley. They got a little ambitious moving him up to the $40k level last time, and he actually put in a pretty solid effort finish fourth beaten less than two lengths. He seemed to appreciate turning back to 6 1/2 furlongs after gradually stretching out for his prior connections, and Morley wisely keeps him sprinting again this time. Furthermore, Morley is 18 for 83 (22%, $2.06 ROI) second off the claim over the past 5 years, so this horse might be ready for a step forward. Some might consider his main rival to be Montebello (#4) as he drops in a for a tag for the first time in his career. Yet there are some real questions about whether this horse can run at all anymore. It’s been a game of musical trainers since he was purchased at auction for $325k back in the summer of 2022. He first tailed off for Todd Pletcher, then got one start in the Christophe Clement, and now he’s been transferred to Rudy Rodriguez. He’s essentially been eased in his recent races, and last time was put under pressure in the middle of the backstretch, barely making it a half-mile before calling it quits. He’s not for me at any kind of short price. My top pick is Face Abarrio (#1). While the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario that necessarily favors frontrunners, it does depict this horse on a clear early lead through the first quarter mile. That figures to make this speedy colt pretty dangerous. He generally runs well when he’s able to attain a clear lead, and Manny Franco figures to be aggressive from this rail draw. He was just in over his head stepping up to the starter allowance level last time, getting involved in a 3-horse duel with the superior Capone. He doesn’t face a pace rival of that quality this time, and I think he’ll be tough to catch if rebounding to one of his good efforts. One longshot that I would look to work into the mix underneath is Rock the Weekend (#7). He’s far from one of the likely winners of this race, but he’s run competitive speed figures the last two times he raced over fast tracks. He also didn’t run that much worse than the morning line favorite when they met in that Dec. 16 race two back, and he’s going to be a generous price. I’ll use him with my top pick.