Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Dakota Gold should get more favorable setup in Danger’s Hour
Aqueduct | Race 8 | Post Time 5:07 p.m. (ET)
Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this Danger’s Hour, the first turf stakes of the year in New York, sending out 3 of the top 4 choices on the morning line. The likely favorite is his Spirit of St Louis (#3), who has 4 of his 5 prior turf starts. All of those races came against New York-bred company, but he faced some tough rivals in those state-bred stakes events last year. He twice defeated the classy City Man in the fall at Aqueduct and now tries to extend his winning streak at this venue in his return from a layoff. His speed figures suggest he’s the one to beat, and he projects to get a good trip given his versatile running style.
There is speed in here, and one of the Chad Brown runners, Masen (#1), figures to be setting the pace from the rail. He got keen when they attempted to rate him last time, and he should return to frontrunning tactics here. I’m just not quite convinced that he’s good enough to lead this field all the way, since he tired in the last furlong when trying a similar spot in the Artie Schiller here last fall. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is also predicting a fast early pace, but that is heavily dependent on the participation of Heaven Street (#4), who is cross-entered on Saturday at Laurel.
Brown’s least accomplished entrant is Equitize (#5), who might have the most upside of these. However, he still has much to prove in just the fourth start of his career. He’s needed plenty of time between each prior start, and now comes off another short layoff after winning his seasonal debut at Tampa. He was dominant that day, but only earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and even that number seems generous since a few who finished behind him have since returned to regress. I would need a generous price to back him in this spot.
My top pick is Dakota Gold (#7). He exits the same couple of races as Spirit of St. Louis, who defeated him in both the West Point and Mohawk. However, neither of those races set up well for this gelding. He trailed in the early stages of both events behind slow early paces. He was especially compromised in the Mohawk, where they crawled through the early stages, giving Spirit of St Louis a significant advantage. Those races were also contested over turf courses with give in the ground, and he seems much better on fast going. He was in excellent form when he returned from a layoff in the first half of last year, and I think he can return to form off another freshening. His trainer Danny Gargan is 14 for 55 (25%, $2.24 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs over the past 5 years.