Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Connect the Stars should relish added ground

Saratoga | Race 6 | Post Time 3:20 p.m. (ET)

The eight fillies entered for turf in this maiden special weight are evenly split between first time starters and runners with experience. The group of firsters is led by Embrace Time (#5), a $175k yearling purchase trained by Brad Cox. Her sire Not This Time wins with 18 percent of his juvenile first time starters, and gets 15 percent winners from all turf route starters. She also has pedigree for this surface on the dam's side, being out of a mare who achieved all four of her career victories routing on turf. Cox does well with these types, going 21 for 98 (21%, $2.25 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf routes over 5 years, according to DRF Formulator. I view her as the strongest of those making their debuts.

Gorrono Ranch (#8) has the most experience of anyone in this field, but all of her three prior races have come on dirt. She tries grass for the first time while also stretching out off a series of sprints, but she does have pedigree for these changes. War of Will has proven to be a decent turf influence, and her second dam Mariel N Kathy was a stakes-winning turf horse.

I prefer some horses who have already tried the turf. Matadora (#1) could go favored after finishing third in her debut on grass. That was a six-furlong affair, but she did stay on well for third behind a dominant winner, earning a respectable 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She also broke well and wanted to show speed before getting rated, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Irad Ortiz Jr. send her forward from this inside post. I'm just a little concerned about her pedigree for this added distance, since her unraced dam has primarily produced sprinters.

My top pick is Connect the Stars (#7), who finished four lengths behind Matadora in that same Aqueduct maiden race on grass. She didn't take much money that day, going off at 23-1, and ran like a horse who probably needed the start. She broke outwardly from the gate and lacked early speed before staying on mildly at the end. Her rising TimeformUS Pace Figure line indicates that she was maintaining her momentum well relative to the race flow, a positive indicator for stretching out. Watching the replay after the wire, she also galloped out best of all into the turn. She's bred to appreciate added ground, out of a dam who won a stakes going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Mark Casse's two-year-olds tend to improve with a start under their belts, and I'm expecting this filly to take a step forward on Saturday.