Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Bermuda Blitz's Kentucky form matches up against Aqueduct foes

Aqueduct | Race 9 | Post Time 3:39 p.m. (ET)

My primary take on this unusually deep starter allowance race is that I believe Nuanced (#2) is a vulnerable heavy favorite as he steps up against winners for the first time. This 3-year-old did run like a horse who probably needed his debut experience sprinting at Churchill Downs. I'm just not quite sure that his subsequent victory at Keeneland is a true representation of his ability. His speed figures, a 91 Beyer Speed Figure and 116 TimeformUS Figure, absolutely tower over this field. However, it's fairly common for horses to run up exaggerated margins in two-turn dirt victories at Keeneland. The pace might look fast on paper, but this horse established a pretty easy lead from an inside post that day. I'm not sold that he can reproduce those numbers in a one-turn mile with other speed drawn outside of him.

Among the recent maiden winners, I prefer Porosity (#3), who just won going this one-turn mile distance at Aqueduct. He beat an unusually strong $50k maiden claiming field, out of which today's rival Kavanaugh has already returned to win. This horse debuted in an extremely tough maiden event in his lone start last winter, and he appears to have returned as an improved horse after being given plenty of time to mature.

Golden Symphony (#9) has had many more chances than those two lightly raced rivals, but he is coming off a strong effort at this level when only beaten by the classy Dreamlike. He had to be hard used to make the lead from an inside post that day, and set some quick fractions. He actually showed grit to fend of challenges in upper stretch before succumbing to the winner's final bid. Drawing outside this time should benefit him.

My top pick is Bermuda Blitz (#1), who figures to be rallying from somewhere in midpack. This 3-year-old showed promise as a younger horse last winter for Mark Casse before going off form for that barn. However, he seemed to improve when changing hands this summer in Kentucky. He hasn't won since a claiming victory at Ellis in July, but he's had some legitimate excuses lately. He got shuffled in traffic in August, and last time made an early move to take over at Keeneland in a race that completely fell apart late. He now switches into the barn of Chad Summers, making his second start off the claim for owner Roddy Valente. I believe he's better than he looks on paper, and a one-turn mile with a fair pace setup should be ideal for him.