No one knows more about the crucial trends behind the races at Royal Ascot than Paul Jones, is compiling comprehensive Stats Guides for over 30 races at Royal Ascot 2020. Buckingham Palace Handicap Class 2 | 3YO plus Winner £20,024 7f Brought back to open the meeting after its services were no longer required when a race had to make way to incorporate the Commonwealth Cup into the meeting, this 7f all-aged handicap returns for one year only and has its fourteenth running. In those first 13 runnings it was the weakest trends handicap of the meeting with winners coming from many ages and all over the handicap so we are very thin on pattern-based angles. Fancied horses won the first four runnings but two 25/1 shots and a 33/1 outsider won the next three runnings followed by six more double-figure priced winners so I would argue this is a race not to go too overboard about on the punting front. Often you can gloss over handicappers aged six and upwards in hot handicaps as they are thoroughly exposed but horses aged six, seven and eight won four of the last nine runnings before the race was discontinued so bang goes that theory for this race. :: Get more content like this at At The Races The draw can be helpful as a middle draw in big-field, straight course handicaps isn’t usually a positive. The 2014 winner was dawn close to the stands’ rail with the previous year’s winner right up against it. Centrally-drawn horses struggled in the last seven runnings with winners coming from stalls 29, 6, 29, 30, 11, 32 and 29 but the field size has been cut to 24 runners for social distancing purposes. Ascot form is a plus. The penultimate winner back in 2013 was second in the big-field handicap for lady riders on King George Day the previous season, the 2012 winner finished fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup the previous season, the 2011 winner was second in the Victoria Cup, the 2010 winner was fifth in a Coventry Stakes, the 2009 winner had finished third in a £100K 7f handicap at the course the previous season and the 2007 winner was third in the previous season’s renewal. Sir Michael Stoute has only saddled four runners, all four of which started in the first two in betting and none of which finished in the first ten. At a glance summary POSITIVES Quality Ascot handicap form Drawn in the highest or lowest six stalls Don’t be afraid of big prices NEGATIVES Trained by Sir Michael Stoute Queen Anne Stakes Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 4YO plus Winner £148,000 1m Last year’s race Winner: Lord Glitters Jockey: D Tudhope Trainer: D O'Meara Owner: Geoff & Sandra Turnbull Age: 6 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 14/1 Season Form Figures: 30 Previous Best: 2nd – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1), Royal Ascot, June 2018 Possibly the strongest trends race of Royal Ascot kicks off the five-day extravaganza but by far the best guide of the Lockinge (featured 22 Queen Anne winners since 1980 including Lord Glitters last season despite only finishing 13th of 14 at Newbury) has been lost this year. For the record, defeated horses in the Lockinge have a better winning record than the winner claiming 15 of the last 25 runnings (of course there are more of them) so if your fancy has had a run in defeat in Dubai this season, I wouldn’t let that put you off. Although David O’Meara’s Ascot specialist contest by far the most notable guide, at the age of six he certainly didn’t conform to the age trends as four-year-olds had previously won 21 of the last 27 runnings and he became the oldest winner since 1976. I would argue, however, that it was a below-par division for older milers last year. The Godolphin pair of Barney Roy and Benbatl are six-year-olds this season and each was unplaced as favourite in the last two runnings. This season’s leading four-year-old hope looks to be the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner, King Of Change, who was looked after last summer after he was runner-up in the 2000 Guineas as a 66/1 outsider as Richard Hannon felt that he would make into an even better horse in 2021. Like 13 of the last 17 Queen Anne winners, that success over course and distance on Champions Day over a couple of heavy-ground horses that suited them more than the winner, ensures that he is already the winner of a Group 1. The Hannon stable have won three of the last 11 runnings with Paco Boy, Canford Cliffs and Toronado and the trainer has mentioned King Of Change of potentially be as good if not better eventually than the last-named pair, so he has plenty going for him. The leading hope for fillies and mares could be last year’s third and another six-year-old, One Master, though the Diamond Jubilee would also have to come into consideration for her over 6f as, after quickening up to lead inside the final furlong in last season’s Queen Anne, she didn’t quite see out the stiff mile and 7f is her optimum trip. Her main aim this season is winning the Prix de la Foret for a third straight year. Only the reigning Breeders’ Cup Mile winners, Goldikova and Tepin, have won the Queen Anne for fillies in the last 45 years. Godolphin have been the key connections having won the race on as many as eight occasions, though they have supplied the last two beaten favourites as referred to earlier. Quorto, unraced at three after being a leading 2000 Guineas contender, is another contender potentially in the mix for them. Sir Michael Stoute could be represented by Sangarius who has not run since he won the Hampton Court at last season’s Royal Ascot and he won all three runnings between 2000-2002 but none before or after. Aidan O’Brien has had mixed fortunes in the Queen Anne as horses with more brilliance than his three winners (Ad Valorem, Haradasun and Declaration Of War) such as Hawk Wing, George Washington and Rip Van Winkle even failed to place. Two of his three winners were disappointing in the Lockinge which was used mainly as a prep race. Last season’s St James’s Palace and Prix du Moulin winner, Circus Maximus, looks like being Ballydoyle’s best hope this season. The leading French-trained challenger could be Persian King; the French have won on three occasions going back to 2005.  Aside from being aged older than five, the other strong pattern that Lord Glitters overcame was his market position as, at 14/1, he became just the third winner since 1995 not to feature in the first four in the betting.  The fact that only one seasonal debutant, Toronado, has won since Allied Forces in 1997, is irrelevant this year for obvious reasons. At a glance summary POSITIVES Four-year-olds Owned by Godolphin Trained by Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien NEGATIVES Failed to have won a Group 1 race Start outside the first four in the betting Aged over five Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2 | Class 1 | 3YO only Winner £65,120 1m 3f 211y Last year’s race Winner: Star Catcher Jockey: L. Dettori Trainer: J H M Gosden Owner: Mr A E Oppenheimer Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 4/1 Season Form Figures: 13 Previous Best: 1st – Maiden Fillies' Stakes, Newbury (April 2019) All change for Ribblesdale as what was a race where Oaks runners had a pretty good record given how few fillies contested both prizes turning out again relatively quickly (seven wins since 1997), it has become an Oaks Trial this season with Epsom being put back a month. It wasn’t a massively strong trends race anyway but it can still pay to look to a later-developing improver as just six winners in the last 25 years had been contesting Group races as juveniles so the Ribblesdale boasts a very similar pattern in this respect to the colts' equivalent of this race at the Royal Meeting, the King Edward VII Stakes. With regards to a filly’s last run, as this will be the seasonal debut of virtually, if not all of the field, how relevant this season that four winners in the last 18 years won a maiden last time out and two of the last 14 winners won a handicap on their previous start is, we’ll have to see. Last year’s winner, Star Catcher, was previously third in a Listed prize but ended the season and the leading 3yo middle-distance filly adding three Group 1s after her success in the Ribblesdale. Winning form earlier in the season is usually a good steer as 17 of the last 21 winners had won either of their last two starts during the current campaign and nine of the last 12 winners had won at Group or Listed level. The Irish have won the Ribblesdale eight times in the last 18 years (three for Aidan O’Brien and two Dermot Weld) including the 1-2 in 2015 so they have fared considerably better than in the colt’s equivalent, the King Edward VII, with two victories in the last 45 years. Godolphin had been quiet in this race with no runners between 2006-2008 but they have won it twice since adding to three previous successes and four seconds from just 14 runners so they clearly know what is required. With two winners and four seconds in the last 16 years we also have to seriously respect John Gosden’s entries. Sir Michael Stoute should be faring a whole lot better and has been responsible for five losing favourites from his last 23 runners.  At a glance summary POSITIVES Won a Group or Listed race Trained in Ireland Last time out maiden winner Godolphin-owned Trained by John Gosden Did not contest a Group race as a two-year-old NEGATIVES Not won either of last two starts Trained by Sir Michael Stoute King Edward VII Stakes Group 2 | Class 1 | 3YO only Winner £65,120 1m 3f 211y Last year’s race Winner: Japan Jockey: R L Moore Trainer: A P O'Brien Owner: Mr D Smith, Mrs J Magnier, Mr M Tabor Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 6/4 Season Form Figures: 43 Previous Best: 3rd – The Derby (Group 1), Epsom (June 2019) As with the Hampton Court Stakes run over 2f shorter for three-year-olds, the King Edward VII Stakes, which has been a punter-friendly race with 17 of the last 26 winners starting favourite or second favourite, should be considered to be a serious trial for the Derby with Epsom having been put back a month. Not that it is relevant this year but for point of interest, seven winners since 1989 ran in the Derby. Last season’s winner, Japan, went on to win the Juddmonte International (the highest rated race in Britain in recent years on official ratings) and two other fairly recent winners went on to win the Dubai World Cup (Monterosso) and King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Nathaniel) and the 2014 runner-up later won the Cox Plate (Adelaide) so the race often referred to as the Ascot Derby has been a big guide to the very biggest races on the planet in recent years. Also note that as many as ten of the last 26 subsequent St Leger winners have run with credit here so stamina genes counts for plenty. Across The Stars was giving Sir Michael Stoute his sixth winner since 1991 four years ago adding to the successes of Papal Bull, Balakheri, Foyer, Saddlers Hall and Hillstar (should have been seven as the subsequent dual Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, Conduit, was given too much to do). Also respect Mark Johnston and John Gosden who have won this race three times. The Irish, however, have only mustered two wins in the last 45 years and one of those was in a very poor five-runner renewal. Aidan O’Brien’s Japan hacked up last year after going close in the Derby but he has been responsible for four of the last seven losing favourites (three of which started at no bigger than 6/5), two of which ran big races in the Derby plus his At First Sight was also only fifth here as favourite in 2010 after finishing second in the Derby. Of the last 24 winners, all but four were winning a Group race for the first time and, of the last 25 winners, only seven had failed to visit the Winners' Enclosure earlier in the season. Those stats are clearly going to be hard to uphold this year so, again for point of interest, during the same period, 13 winners had contested a recognised Derby trial including 11 of the last 19 - four of which in the Lingfield Derby Trial. As with the Ribblesdale Stakes (the fillies' equivalent of this race at Royal Ascot), proven two-year-old form counts for little. In fact, the 2014 winner, Eagle Top, was given his racecourse debut just nine weeks earlier and the 2015 winner, Balios, ran only once as a two-year-old as late as November and just once beforehand in his three-year-old campaign. So this has proven to be very much a race for unexposed horses likely to show their true potential when sent over this trip for the first time and 21 of the last 24 winners had not previously won over 1m4f so the majority were unexposed at this trip. At a glance summary POSITIVES The favourite or second-favourite Contested a recognised Derby Trial Yet to win over 1m4f+ Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden or Mark Johnston NEGATIVES Irish-trained contenders King's Stand Stakes Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 3YO plus Winner £148,000 5f Last year’s race Winner: Blue Point Jockey: James Doyle Trainer: C Appleby Owner: Godolphin Age: 5 Weight: 9st 4lbs Starting Price: 5/2 Season Form Figures: 111 Previous Best: 1st – King's Stand Stakes (Group 1), Royal Ascot (2018) Battaash has only found Blue Point too good in the last two runnings so, with his nemesis now packed off to stud, he is a deserving favourite to make it third time lucky at the age of six, even if this stiff 5f isn’t as ideal for him as more speed-favouring 5fs like Goodwood, York and Chantilly, where he has posted his three best performances to my eye.  It took him three attempts to win the Nunthorpe but when he did so he was devastating scorching clear to win by 3 ¾ lengths so could this also be third time lucky with no Blue Point in opposition? In the last couple of seasons Battaash has prepped in the Temple Stakes (the best guide with six winners since 1990 one ahead of the Prix du Gros-Chene with five winners in the last 24 years) which he won both times so I wouldn’t be concerned about his lack of a prep run. British-trained horses have won four of the last five runnings having previously been up against it since the sprinting scene became more global. There were international successes in 2013, 2014 (both Sole Power) and 2017 (Lady Aurelia) after we had four Australian-trained winners since 2003, a success for France in 2005 (and twice more in the previous eight years), Hong Kong in 2012 and even a Spanish-trained winner in 2008. Nature Strip was the early ante-post second-favourite after Ascot’s P.R. team nominated Australia’s best sprinter as their number one target from outside of Europe before this crisis deepened but Chris Waller has virtually ruled out a trip to Britain in the current climate. Fellow Aussie, Sunlight, was set to travel over to contest both the King’s Stand and Diamond Jubilee (a double achieved by Choisir and Blue Point), or at least he was earlier this spring but he has disappointed twice since that intention came to light, finishing last of 16 which saw them reach for blinkers which didn’t help much judged on his then 11th of 14. Age is not a critical factor with recent winners aged from three right through to seven in the last five years but, over a longer period of time, three-year-olds have a decent strike rate winning, on average, twice a decade which may not sound exciting but they are always heavily outnumbered so do afford them respect. However the Commonwealth Cup restricted to the Classic generation is likely to take away the best of the British and Irish three-year-old sprinting talent. The Americans on the other hand... The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner back in November, Four Wheel Drive, who Wesley Ward wants to keep at 5f so prefers this target to the Commonwealth Cup over 6f, could therefore bid to emulate fellow three-year-old at the time, Lady Aurelia, who blitzed her rivals in this contest three years ago. Four Wheel Drive made all to win that Grade 2 at Santa Anita but he was only seventh when sent off at odds-on at Churchill Downs in mid-May. Ireland’s main hope could be Sceptical for the Denis Hogan yard. Restricted to just two starts as a three-year-olds last season having been unraced at two, he was an impressive winner of the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Naas earlier in June so has the advantage of being hard fit with three runs under his belt this season with the prospect of more to come, for all that this race will be another big step up in class. The Flying Five 1-2, Fairyland and So Perfect (separated by a short-head in that below-par Group 1), could represent Aidan O’Brien but both kept coming up short when taking on the best 5f sprinters last season, although often running well in defeat. Fairyland is the more consistent and was fifth in this race last year and third in the July Cup and So Perfect ended her campaign with a 3l second in the Abbaye. Back to the home team and Glass Slippers is the leading hope for fillies and mares having easily won the Prix de l’Abbaye by three lengths, helped by Battaash having an off-day on very soft ground with the 9/10 favourite being heavily eased when the game was up. The winner was following up a course and distance victory from three weeks earlier so clearly has taken a shine to Longchamp’s slick 5f but Ascot’s 5f is a different kettle of fish, plus I usually treat Abbaye form at the end of a long season on usually softer ground with a big pinch of salt, backed up by the amount of surprise winners it throws up - often handicappers come out on top. Glass Slippers is much better than a handicapper and the leading hope for the fillies who have a decent strike rate in the King’s Stand winning six of the last 26 runnings given how outnumbered they are. Last season’s Norfolk winner, A’Ali, has course and distance winning form at the meeting (won last year's Norfolk Stakes) so must be respected. Two more pattern-race successes followed in a Group 2 at Deauville over 5½f and in the Flying Childers over 5f having struggled in between in a very strong renewal of the Group 1 Prix Morny where the combination of 6f and heavy ground played against him in a super-hot race won by Earthlight that also featured the Coventry and Albany winners. No disgrace in that and he was back to his best back at 5f at Donny. That win precipitated a trip to the Breeders’ Cup where he was tenth behind Four Wheel Drive but that can be forgiven. As you would expect for a competitive Group 1 sprint, pattern-race winners have come to the fore with 22 of the last 31 winners having already won at Group 1 or Group 2 level so no massive angle there. All but two of the last 20 winners had also won a Group race over the minimum trip of five furlongs (also to be expected) and all bar one of those last 19 winners had enjoyed the benefit of a run earlier in the season (still nothing to get particularly excited about). Twelve of the last 20 winners were also successful on their most recent outing, in fact, 13 of the last 15 winners finished first or second last time out. At a glance summary POSITIVES Last-time-out winner A top-four finisher in the Prix du Gros-Chene Three-year-olds Fillies and Mares NEGATIVES Outside the first two last time out Failed to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race Failed to win a Group race over 5f Seasonal debutants Duke of Cambridge Stakes Group 2 | Class 1 | 4YO plus Winner £59,200 1m Last year’s race Winner: Move Swiftly Jockey: D Tudhope Trainer: W J Haggas Owner: Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum Age: 4 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 9/1 Season Form Figures: Seasonal debut Previous Best: 2nd – Fleur De Lys Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race), Lingfield (AW) (Nov 2018) This Group 2 affair for older fillies and mares over the straight mile will be the seventeenth running since it was upgraded from being a Listed race at the September Meeting and a number of strong patterns have emerged since its upgrade. Peeress (14/1) and Amazing Maria (25/1) were hard to find but the favourite or second-favourite has won on ten occasions. The most notable negative trend is that none of the 12 fillies to run under Group 1 winning penalty (5lb) have won and just two have placed - most recently last season’s favourite, I Can Fly, who was beaten into third. The previous year punters sent off another Aidan O’Brien-trained filly off as favourite under her 5lb penalty, Hydrangea, but she failed to trouble the judge. However, Godolphin’s Usherette defied 3lb penalty in style four years ago. All but two of the 16 winners though had won a Group 2 or Group 3 earlier in their career with another having won at Listed level. As such, Move Swiftly would not have been on the radar of trends backers last season being the first winner of the Duke of Cambridge not to have won at such a level. Of the 15 winners when this race was run at Ascot (one running at York), six had previously recorded a victory at the course and another three had been placed at the previous year’s Royal Meeting so quality course form is certainly a bonus. The Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) run at Epsom on Derby Day usually throws up a leading hope but that race now takes place after Royal Ascot. The Group 3 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket is the other notable guide as the last eight winners to take their chance here have produced two winners, two seconds and a third. The Dahlia this year was won by John Gosden's Terebellum from Queen Power  - the latter saddled by Sir Michael Stoute who saddled Integral to finish second at Newmarket five years ago before adding this more sought-after prize. Stoute has won this race six times since 2007 in addition to supplying four other second-place finishes (Rawdaa being the latest last year). In terms of ownership, Cheveley Park Stud have owned three winners and no less than four second-places finishers. Godolphin have supplied four beaten favourites but the Andre Fabre-trained Usherette put that right for them as the market leader four years ago. The French are not to be underestimated having supplied three winners, two seconds and three thirds so pay any Gallic rivals plenty of respect. Four-year-olds have had much the best of it leading their older rivals 13-3 but they have held a numerical advantage making up approximately three-quarters of the total runners so don't read too much into that. At a glance summary POSITIVES The favourite or second-favourite Contested the Dahlia Stakes (the winner especially) Winning course form Placed at Royal Ascot last year Trained by Sir Michael Stoute or in France Owned by Cheveley Park Stud NEGATIVES Running under a Group 1 penalty Yet to win a Group race Ascot Stakes Handicap Class 2 | 4YO plus Winner £22,641 2m 3f 210y Last year’s race Winner: The Grand Visir Jockey: R Kingscote Trainer: Ian Williams Owner: Clxx Age: 5 Weight: 9st 10lbs Starting Price: 12/1 Season Form Figures: 7 Previous Best: 1st - Class 3 Handicap, Doncaster (Oct 2018) Unquestionably the most punter-friendly handicap at the meeting with the last 11 winners sent off at no bigger than 12/1 and, in the last 30 years, as a many as 21 winners could be found in the first six in the betting. Six of the last eight winners were trained in Ireland. Willie Mullins’s Buildmeupbuttercup couldn’t quite make that seven last season when finishing runner-up but it was another fine effort for the stable which had won four runnings since 2012. In fact, when Lagostovegas won two years ago, she led home a Mullins-trained 1-2-4-5. She was also the fourth successful filly or mare in the last 12 years from low representation, as was last year’s second. It was the Ian Williams-trained top weight, The Grand Visir, that thwarted Mullins 12 months ago (and for good measure Williams also saddled the third) thus extending the record of dual-purpose trainers to 12 wins in the last 13 years. Williams is a fine trainer in bith codes but better known for his flat exploits whereas Willie Mullins (x4 winners), Charles Byrnes, Jonjo O’Neill, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe, Suzy Smith, Paul Webber and Jarlath Fahey are best known for jump racing. Alan King has not saddled the winner yet but had two placed runners in 2017 and last season’s fifth. Over a longer period of time, 14 of the last 18 winners emanated from primarily jumping-based stables. Pipe has also trained a second and third in recent reasons and his father won this race four times when he held the licence at Nicholashayne. Tony Martin is another trainer better known for his handling of jumpers and he has landed more than his fair share of big handicaps in Britain and this race has been no exception with Barba Papa (2000) and Leg Spinner (2005) taking the spoils and he has had a further two placed runners. The Ascot Stakes used to be very much a race in which to concentrate on four and five-year-olds but up until The Grand Visir’s success last year, the previous five winners were aged between six and nine and all five were trained in Ireland. Prior to those Irish-trained victories, 15 of the previous 19 winners emerged from that 4-5 age bracket. It might be wise to only overlook horses aged 6+ trained in Britain based on the most recent results. There are no strong individual race guides and there used to be weight, draw and age angles to exploit but not anymore. Horses carrying less than 9st had been responsible for approximately 50% of the total runners between 1996-2008 but only won on three occasions but, in the last few years, the weights have been so much more compressed that very few horses have run off below 9st. Even over 2m4f there was a draw angle when the race featured nigh on 30 runners but that edge has been taken away by reducing the maximum field size to 20 so we have lost an ‘in’ there as there has been no advantage since. At a glance summary POSITIVES Trained by a primarily jumps-based stable Trained in Ireland (notably Willie Mullins) Start in the first six in the betting NEGATIVES British-trained contenders aged older than five Likely to be sent off at over 12/1