No one knows more about the crucial trends behind the races at Royal Ascot than Paul Jones, is compiling comprehensive Stats Guides for over 30 races at Royal Ascot 2020. Wolferton Stakes Listed | Class 1 | 4YO plus Winner £29,600 1m 1f 212y Last year’s race Winner: Addeybb Jockey: D Tudhope Trainer: W J Haggas Owner: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum Age: 5 Weight: 9st 3lbs Starting Price: 5/1 Season Form Figures: 4 Previous Best: 1st – bet365 Mile (Group 2), Sandown (April 2018) This is the third year of the Wolferton being a Listed race (rather than a Listed handicap) over 1m2f on the round course featuring a double-figure field where they meet a bend after a furlong, so the draw can be important. What is a low draw since the switch of stall numbers nine seasons ago has been an advantage as 11 of the last 15 winners at Ascot were drawn in what are now single-figure stalls. Addeybb managed to overcome that last season but he did go on to win two Group 1s in Australia (not being a handicap anymore means that class horses have a better chance to overcome this – the runner-up, Magic Wand was drawn wider still but was also a Group 1 horse running in a Listed race) and the draw is also easier to overcome on soft ground which was the case 12 months ago. Four-year-olds have filled 18 of the 22 positions in the last seven years which has contributed to 15 wins in the last 19 years. This becomes more significant when we consider that four-year-olds and horses aged five and upwards have more or less been responsible for a similar number of runners within that time. :: Get more content like this at At The Races There have been 17 runnings since this race became part of Royal Ascot and punters have sent a Sir Michael Stoute-trained contender off as the beaten favourite on as many as seven occasions and Saeed bin Suroor on another three. Stoute did win with the fancied Perfect Stride ten years ago and the unfancied Imperial Stride five years earlier though. On a more positive note, John Gosden won three of the last Wolferton’s when it was run as a handicap and the first when it became a non-handicap with Monarch’s Glen. Mark Johnston and Ed Dunlop's runners are also worth a second look. Johnston supplied the runner-up and third in 2015 in addition to a winner and third in 2006 (his Elarqam was third last year) whilst Dunlop was successful in 2014 and in 1997 plus two of his five other runners have also hit the frame. At a glance summary POSITIVES Four-year-olds A single-figure draw Respect John Gosden, Mark Johnston and Ed Dunlop NEGATIVES More than two runs this season Unplaced last time out A Sir Michael Stoute or Saeed bin Suroor-trained favourite Jersey Stakes Group 3 | Class 1 | 3YO only Winner £35,520 7f Last year’s race Winner: Space Traveller Jockey: D Tudhope Trainer: R A Fahey Owner: Clipper Logistics Age: 3 Weight: 9st 1lbs Starting Price: 25/1 Season Form Figures: 237 Previous Best: 3rd – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race), Newbury (May 2019) It is far from uncommon that horses which contested a version of a Guineas for colts or fillies drop back a furlong in trip to win the Jersey Stakes at a lower level. In fact, in the last eight years, five winners had finished placed in a Guineas and two more were unplaced in the 2000 Guineas. Moreover, in two of the last six years the 1-2-3 had all run in a Guineas beforehand as have all three of Aidan O’Brien’s Jersey Stakes winners.  The tide has certainly turned with regards to penalised runners as four of the last nine winners (Strong Suit, Mustajeeb, Dutch Connection and Ribchester) defied a penalty following 24 consecutive years of unpenalised winners of the Jersey Stakes. There were no penalised runners last season. Listed race winners have been successful on five occasions in the last 15 years and are unpenalised. Regards last-time-out maiden winners, they endured a terrible run after Zilzal won in 1989 not winning again until Aqlaam in 2008 but Rainfall became another two years later. Eight of last 21 winners won last time out and the best guide outside of a classic has been the King Charles II Stakes. The 2006 and 2007 winners both followed up here and two more Jersey Stakes winners, Membership and Observatory, finished second in that Listed race immediately prior to winning here. Horses to finish in the first three in the last eight runnings of the King Charles II Stakes have gone on to place here. We had a turn up last season when Space Traveller won at 25/1 following a good run for the market leaders with five winners in six years sent off in the first three in the betting. In victory he was giving Richard Fahey a second winner in four years following Ribchester. Sir Michael Stoute leads Aidan O’Brien 4-3 after Expert Eye’s runaway success two years ago. It had been tough going for fillies as all 17 to run since Satin Flower won in 1991 had been beaten up until Rainfall and Ishvana’s successes in the last ten years. Horses to finish unplaced last time out have won only five of the last 23 runnings and three of those winners finished out of the frame in the 2000 Guineas. At a glance summary POSITIVES Contested any version of a Guineas (notably if finishing placed) Penalised for winning a Group race Last time out winner Listed race winner Ran well in the King Charles II Stakes Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien or Richard Fahey NEGATIVES Unplaced on most recent start, unless in the 2000 Guineas Gold Cup Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 4YO plus Winner £148,000 2m 3f 210y Last year’s race Winner: Stradivarius Jockey: L Dettori Trainer: J H M Gosden Owner: Mr B E Nielsen Age: 5 Weight: 9st 2lbs Starting Price: 1/1 Season Form Figures: 1 Previous Best: 1st – Gold Cup (Group 1), Royal Ascot (June 2018) Stradivarius and Kew Gardens dominate the market after they fought out the finish to the British Champions Long Distance Cup over 2m in October with the 2018 St Leger winner putting an end to the long winning sequence of the dual Ascot Gold Cup winner, which he did so narrowly fighting back to gain the spoils in a pulsating finish by a nose. The two reasons why I believe Stradivarius is the right favourite to reverse placings and also to the extent that the betting suggests being half his odds at the time of writing are that (a) we know the extra half-mile is absolutely no problem for him whereas Key Gardens has yet to race beyond 2m and (b) last season they squeezed in a Doncaster Cup after his triumphs in the Yorkshire, Ascot, Goodwood and Lonsdale Cup unlike the previous seasons so the edge may have been taken off him come mid-October and on softer ground than he likes. I doubt that he will have lost any of his ability between five and six and he’ll be trained to the minute for the rematch to try and become just the third horse to win it more than twice joining Sagaro and Yeats. There have been many dual Gold Cup winners and Kew Gardens is the obvious most likely threat to stop Stradivarius going one better but his staying 2m4f isn’t a given. I suspect that he will stay just like Yeats, Fame And Glory and Order Of St George did who were also high class over middle distances for the same operation but I do think that he enjoyed a freshness advantage last autumn having had a quieter summer than his big rival. The Irish have won eight of the last 14 Gold Cups, seven of which were trained by Aidan O’Brien but should Dermot Weld send over the Irish St Leger winner, Search For A Song, she would be a fascinating contender with her fillies’ allowance (like Estimate enjoyed for her famous victory) having pulled her jockey’s arms out throughout but was still good enough to beat Kew Gardens into second. The reigning title holder has won seven of the last 23 runnings and Stradivarius will be a strong fancy for many to win three consecutive Gold Cups at the age of six. History tells us that only exceptional horses over the age of six tend to win the Gold Cup, and stayers don’t get much more exceptional than Yeats who won here as a seven and eight-year-old, so I am happy to treat the four-time Gold Cup winner as an exception to the rule. Prior to Yeats, only one other winner going back to 1929 had been aged seven or older. Seven of the last 12 British-trained winners contested the Henry II Stakes won last season by Dee Ex Bee who was successfully following up his victory in the Sagaro and finished runner-up to Stradivarius here, before filling the same position in the Goodwood Cup and Lonsdale Cup. That contest at Sandown has been the most productive Gold Cup guide in recent years supplying ten of the last 26 winners and, of those ten winners, six were placed. Recent Gold Cup winners Colour Vision and Estimate both contested the Sagaro Stakes whereas Stradivarius prepped winning the Yorkshire Cup on both occasions. Three Queen’s Vase winners since 2012 went on to win the following year’s Gold Cup and four in total during that limited time period given that Stradivarius went on to win it again. Given that it was Kew Gardens who won the 2018 Queen’s Vase and he is likely to run in the Gold Cup for the first time, it is odds-on that that Group 2 over 1m6f contest from anytime in the past will provide the winner again. Last season’s winner was Dashing Willoughby who could join the two previous Queen’s Vase winners in the race. Godolphin have won five Gold Cups going back to 1996 and last year’s 1¾l fourth, Cross Counter, looks their best chance again. He looked to be given too much to do in last season’s race but subsequent runs suggest that he is as good as he is. Call The Wind has the advantage of a run this season in Saudi Arabia, and a winning one at that, after finishing second in the two Group 1s at Longchamp in October and looks like heading the French challenge trying to win the Gold Cup for only the second time in 35 years. Up until 2010, the previous ten winners had won a Group 1 or 2 contest but, since then, Rite Of Passage, Estimate and Trip To Paris have won the Gold Cup having not won previously at such a level. Twenty of the last 25 winners had won earlier in the season which would normally be notable enough not to be overlooked.  As far as the market is concerned, we have endured some surprise winners with six being sent off at 14/1+ in the last 25 years but, more importantly, 13 of the last 14 winners have been very find-able with no winner bigger than 7/1.  At a glance summary POSITIVES Yet to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race Aged older than six Likely to start at no bigger than 7/1 Irish-trained Won a Queen’s Vase Contested the Henry II Stakes Horses that won or were placed over middle distances at Group 1 level Godolphin-owned contenders Won earlier in the season NEGATIVES Yet to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race Aged older than six Trained in France Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap Class 2 | 3YO only Winner £38,814 1m Last year’s race Winner: Biometric Jockey: Harry Bentley Trainer: R M Beckett Owner: Mr K Abdullah Age: 3 Weight: 8st 8lbs Starting Price: 28/1 Season Form Figures: 112 Previous Best: 1st – Class 4 Novice Stakes, Newbury (May 2019) Usually featuring approximately 30 three-year-olds (cut to 24 this year to assist with social distancing), the majority of which are unexposed and from top yards, for my money the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive (though not impossible) three-year-old handicap of the season. That said, despite its highly-competitive edge, it has actually been a very good race for favourites with five of the last 21 obliging and Turgenev under Dettori looked like making that six last season until caught late on by Biometric thwarting a massive plunge from 20/1 into 7/2 with Frankie having ridden the previous four winners on the card. In fact, 19 of the last 29 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting so this isn’t punter’s nightmare that many believe to be the case. An emerging pattern is that six of the last none winners won a handicap on their previous start which is in stark contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top. That will be more difficult to achieve this season however given the limited opportunities. Some punters fall into the trap of backing a flashy, last-time-out maiden winner from a big yard but no horse with such a profile has won since John Gosden's North Song 23 years ago. The 2015 winner, War Envoy, had previously finished last in the French Derby so he had a most unusual profile for a Britannia winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge was certainly not a trends horse therefore and that included on the weight front too as he carried 9st 6lb. Just four of the last 30 winners have carried over 9st and two of the last three winners crept in as the bottom weight. It’s been a while since John Gosden last saddled the winner but it is still worth noting that going back to and including 1994 he has trained four winners, two seconds (including last year) and three thirds from 37 runners. Significantly, all four of his winners ended their juvenile season without a victory and also failed to break their maiden tag at first time of asking as a three-year-old. James Fanshawe is another name to strongly consider with a winner and three placed horses from his last four runners. It is not often that I give jockey trends but, for a massive-field handicap, it is some achievement for Jamie Spencer to have ridden the winner on four occasions since 2003, underlining that he’s probably the best exponent of the hold-up ride in big-field, straight-course handicaps at Ascot. As far as the draw is concerned, like with many major straight-course handicaps, it often pays to look very low or very high as 11 of the last 21 winners were drawn no more than five positions off either rail. Although Ostilio may have been drawn 15 two years ago, he soon led the main group in a clear lead against the near rail and never looked like being caught under another Sylvestre de Sousa front-running masterclass. Dettori almost pulled off similar tactics last year on Turgenev until caught by Biometric from stall 29. At a glance summary POSITIVES Won a handicap last time out First six in the market (the favourite also has a strong record) Trained by John Gosden or James Fanshawe Ridden by Jamie Spencer Drawn in the lowest or highest five stalls Sandringham Stakes Handicap Class 2 | 3YO only Winner £38,814 1m Last year’s race Winner: Thanks Be Jockey: Hayley Turner Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Owner: Mrs Emma Capon Age: 3 Weight: 8st 0lbs Starting Price: 33/1 Season Form Figures: 22 Previous Best: 2nd – Fillies' Handicap, Nottingham (May 2019) This handicap for three-year-old fillies over a mile has been part of Royal Ascot since 2002 but it isn’t that strong a stats race. For the third year it is being run as a standard handicap rather than a Listed handicap so to all intents and purposes, it is basically now the fillies’ Britannia Stakes. It has been a good idea to look at later developers as 13 winners since 1995 started the season as a maiden. Agrotera became the first last-time-out maiden winner since 2000 when she justified favouritism two years ago but 13 of the last 25 winners won last time out. Last season’s 33/1 winner, Thanks Be, was a maiden entering the race having her fifth start. With only four of the last 25 winners not being sent off in the front half-dozen in the market, it has been one of the better handicaps at the meeting for punters. Eighteen of the last 24 winners had visited the Winner's Enclosure at some point earlier in the campaign (obviously that will be harder this season) and one of those not to score earlier in the campaign was having her seasonal debut. The Nell Gwyn and Pretty Polly have been the best two guides. The 1000 Guineas Trial has been lost this year but two recent Sandringham winners were placed in the Oaks trial that is the Pretty Polly Stakes so were dropping back in distance. This year, Queen Daenerys and Trefoil filled the places in the Pretty Polly behind impressive winner Run Wild. Like so many handicaps at the Royal Meeting, John Gosden and Mark Johnston figure prominently. With eight of Gosden's last 26 runners making the frame (Persuasive added to Cask’s victory for him four years ago but his four runners were all unplaced last year), his fillies must be considered likely contenders. Johnston had mustered just one runner in the eight renewals prior to Muteela’s success six years ago which is surprising considering that four of his previous five runners made the frame including the winner in 1998. Also note Michael Bell or Ed Dunlop given that they have both won this race twice and Dunlop went within a neck of making in three wins seven years ago when supplying the runner-up and he also supplied the close-up third in 2016. Jamie Spencer has ridden the winner on four occasions going back to 2006 (finished third of 27 last year) strengthening the view held by many that he is the best exponent of how to ride a hold-up horse in big handicaps on the straight course at Ascot. However, he trails Frankie Dettori by three winners having won it seven times. At a glance summary POSITIVES Last-time-out winner Trained by John Gosden, Mark Johnston, Ed Dunlop or Michael Bell First six in the market Maiden at the start of the season Placed in the Pretty Polly Stakes Ridden by Frankie Dettori or Jamie Spencer NEGATIVES None