No one knows more about the crucial trends behind the races at Royal Ascot than Paul Jones, is compiling comprehensive Stats Guides for over 30 races at Royal Ascot 2020. Coronation Stakes Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 3YO only Winner £148,000 7f 213y Last year’s race Winner: Watch Me Jockey: P C Boudot Trainer: F H Graffard Owner: Alexander Tamagni Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 20/1 Season Form Figures: 16 Previous Best: 1st – Prix Imprudence (Group 3), Maisons-Laffitte (May 2019) Of the big three European versions of the 1000 Guineas, the Newmarket version has fared best being responsible for ten of the last 17 winners and seven of those finished in the first six at Newmarket so that has to the first port of call.  The 1000 Guineas winner and third, Love and Quadrilateral, look like heading for a third battle in the Oaks after the winner reversed Fillies’ Mile form two weeks ago so Cloak Of Spirits (second) could be leading the charge for the Newmarket form in the Coronation Stakes. Final Song, Romsey and Under The Stars finished fourth, fifth and sixth ahead of the disappointing Cheveley Park Stakes 1-2 of Millisle and Raffle Prize, who could now drop down in distance. :: Get more content like this at At The Races Last season Hermosa failed in her attempt to join Attraction and Winter as a dual Guineas winner who also added the Coronation Stakes but the Irish 1000 Guineas winner has followed up here on nine occasions in the last 33 years. However, there are only seven days between both races this season. The French 1000 Guineas has held up more than okay given that it wouldn’t have anywhere near the same representation as the Newmarket Classic as seven of last 25 Coronation Stakes winners previously contested that prize (including Watch Me last year who was only sixth at Longchamp) with five having finished second or third in that Classic. Contenders from this year’s race, moved to Deauville, will have had six days longer to freshen up than runners from Newmarket making it even more possible that the winner, Dream And Do, could bid to try and emulate Ervedya who completed the Pouliches-Coronation double in 2015, as her connections seems reticent to risk over further than a mile at present. Ervedya became the first winner of the French 1000 Guineas to win the Coronation Stakes since Toro in 1957 but many winners of that Classic then head to the Prix de Diane next. There have been some surprise results down the years but this Group 1 affair for three-year-old fillies usually goes more or less the way of the Form Book and especially of late with 16 of the last 20 winners found at no bigger than 6/1 with ten starting favourite or joint market leader.  Fallen For You was an unusual winner eight years ago as she became the first filly to take a more softly-softly approach and bypass all the European Guineas’ since Balisada in 1999. Nine of the last 16 winners had won a pattern race at two. As far as trainer trends are concerned, Sir Michael Stoute has won four runnings, one ahead of Aidan O’Brien and two ahead of John Gosden but the record of the French overall trumps them all. At a glance summary POSITIVES Finished in the first six in the 1000 Guineas Finished in the first three in the French 1000 Guineas The Irish 1000 Guineas winner The favourite Trained Sir Michael Stoute Won a pattern race as a two-year-old NEGATIVES Not run in a Classic Likely to start at bigger than 6/1 Beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas St James's Palace Stakes Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 3YO only Winner £148,000 7f 213y Last year’s race Winner: Circus Maximus Jockey: R L Moore Trainer: A P O'Brien Owner: Flaxman Stables/mrs Magnier/tabor/smit Age: 3 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 10/1 Season Form Figures: 16 Previous Best: 1st – Dee Stakes (Listed Race) Chester (May 2019) The fillies' equivalent of this race, the Coronation Stakes, may have thrown up a few shock results down the years but it usually pays to stick to the leading fancies for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Or at least it did until last season when the Aidan O’Brien-trained Circus Maximus (10/1), who had previously failed to stay in the Derby when finishing sixth, became the first double-figure-priced winner since 1992 when Brief Truce floored Arazi and Rodrigo De Triano (both unplaced).  O’Brien has unquestionably been the trainer to follow winning eight of the last 20 runnings and six of his winners contested the Irish 2000 Guineas, though there will only be eight days between races this season. Three of his four dual Guineas winners went on to add this prize but his finest hour in this race was when saddling the 1-2-3 in 2007 and he has also had 12 horses placed in addition to his winners going back to 2002. It would appear that the 2000 Guineas winner, Kameko, will head to the Derby as will the fourth and fifth, but supporters of the O’Brien-trained runner-up, Wichita, plus the short-priced favourite at Newmarket, Pinatubo, who filled the places, can take plenty of encouragement in that winning form last time out is far from essential as 11 of the last 25 winners were beaten on their most recent start, three in the Derby which this season takes place after Royal Ascot. Barney Roy placed in the 2000 Guineas before giving Godolphin a third SJP victory three years ago following Shamardal and Dawn Approach but they have had also been represented by five losing Classic winners. Pinatubo looks set to attempt to regain the winning thread for them after losing his unbeaten record when third at Newmarket with the same owner’s French 2000 Guineas winner, Victor Ludorum, waiting for the Prix du Jockey-Club. He will also try to become the third Dewhurst winner to win the SJP in the last 18 years. The English and Irish 2000 Guineas hold a significant edge over the French equivalent with the Newmarket and Curragh Classics having highlighted 18 and 15 of the last 25 winners respectively. In fact, an eye-catching 14 of the last 25 St James’s Palace Stakes winners contested both Classics. Where the French could enjoy an advantage this season however is that contenders from the Deauville race have an extra six days to recover from runners at Newmarket who have a relatively-quick 14 days’ turnaround.  Twelve of the last 21 winners entered the race as a Classic winner but since Dr Fong won in 1998, only three St James’s Palace winners had failed to finish in the first four in any version of a European 2000 Guineas beforehand. The John Gosden-trained Without Parole managed this feat two years ago having missed in the 2000 Guineas with a setback and then winning the Heron Stakes and his King Of Comedy (runner-up) had a very similar profile last season and he only failed by a neck. It will be interesting to see if Gosden sends Palace Pier here after he impressed at Newcastle rather than contesting the Guineas. Without Parole was also the first for 30 years to have not run in a Group 1 before - could Palace Pier be the second? As for two-year-old form, Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs and Dawn Approach all won the Coventry Stakes on the same day 12 months earlier in the last 11 years which was won last season by Arizona, who was a disappointing eleventh in the 2000 Guineas. He beat Threat into second in the Coventry whose connections purposely gave the Guineas a miss so he could run in the St James’s Palace Stakes as a fresh horse.  At a glance summary POSITIVES Ran in both the Newmarket and Irish 2000 Guineas A Group 1 winner (especially if won a European Guineas) Start at single-figure odds Trained by Aidan O’Brien (especially if contested the Irish 2000 Guineas) Won last season’s Coventry Stakes and/or Dewhurst Stakes NEGATIVES Yet to contest a Group 1 race Failed to finish in the first four in any form of 2000 Guineas Diamond Jubilee Stakes Group 1 | British Champions Series | Class 1 | 4YO plus Winner £148,000 6f Last year’s race Winner: Blue Point Jockey: James Doyle Trainer: C Appleby Owner: Godolphin Age: 5 Weight: 9st 3lbs Starting Price: 6/4 Season Form Figures: 1111 Previous Best: 1st – King's Stand Stakes (Group 1), Royal Ascot (2019) Previous Royal Ascot form has been a useful pointer as 11 of the last 24 winners had been placed at worst at this meeting before, not least Blue Point last season who emulated Choisir in completing the King’s Stand-Diamond Jubilee double four days apart. Five of the last 17 Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in the King’s Stand Stakes as have two of the last nine runners-up and, given the lack of racing before Royal Ascot this year, we may get more than horses than usual line up for both Group 1 sprints. Whether it is the Berkshire course that brings the best out of such contenders or the fact their connections have readied them for this particular week is a difficult one to weigh up but I would argue that there is something in both arguments. Last season’s winner has been retired to stud but the head-runner-up, Dream Of Dreams, could return for another crack. Outside of previous Royal Ascot form, the Duke Of York Stakes has been the best guide as since 1992, ten Diamond Jubilee Stakes winners ran in that Group 2 event on the Knavesmire over the same trip with six finishing first or second before striking here. However, it is has not been saved following the abandonment of the Dante Meeting and there has to be a very good possibility that for the first in over 40 years the race will be won by a seasonal debutant. Group and Listed race winners with a victory earlier in the season have won 15 of the last 25 runnings but it looks like it will have to be a horse to have won outside of Europe coming out on top this year if that good run is to be extended. Blue Point had won three times in Dubai last spring before his Royal Ascot double for example. International raiders have a good record with Choisir and Black Caviar winning for Australia, Cape Of Good Hope for Hong Kong and Undrafted for America. Both of Aidan O’Brien’s winners, Starspangledbanner and Merchant Navy, were formerly trained in Australia. In addition, the Aussie pair of Takeover Target and Star Witness also finished third here after winning and finishing second respectively in the King’s Stand four days earlier and three other American-trained horses have hit the frame since 2009 in addition to Wesley Ward’s Undrafted causing a mini-surprise. There can a huge difference between five and six furlongs at top level for many horses, as both trips have their specialists and the majority of horses more at home over the minimum trip tend to get caught out over an extra 220 yards at Group 1 standard. It is interesting that Sir Henry Cecil believed that 6f at Ascot races more like 6.5f so maybe there is something in the fact that only Kingsgate Native had not previously won over 6f prior to his Diamond Jubilee victory since 1990. Two of the last four winners, Twilight Son and The Tin Man, ran exclusively over 6f before their success and the 2018 winner, Merchant Navy, never ran over 5f. In fact, only two of the last 18 winners had not run over at least 7f at some point. As many as six favourites won between 1989-1997 but we had to wait until Starspangledbanner put an end to the 13-year losing run of the market leader when winning as 13/2 joint-favourite in 2010 and four more favourites have also justified their position as market leader since so it has been a profitable last decade for favourite backers. However, it has also been a race in which to chance some fancy-priced horses lately as nine of the last 20 winners started at a double-figure price. At a glance summary POSITIVES Won or placed at Royal Ascot before Won a Group or Listed race earlier in the season Non-European trained contenders Contested a 7f race at some point during their career NEGATIVES Not won over 6f Wokingham Stakes Heritage Handicap | Class 2 | 3YO plus Winner £48,517 6f Last year’s race Winner: Cape Byron Jockey: Andrea Atzeni Trainer: R Varian Owner: Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum Age: 5 Weight: 9st 9lbs Starting Price: 7/2 Season Form Figures: 1 Previous Best: 1st – Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap), Ascot (May 2019) The quality of horse require to run in the Wokingham keeps is higher now than ever before so previous weight and official rating stats are rendered pretty much irrelevant as we are no longer dealing with like for like. Five winning favourites this century is a good return for such a competitive sprint handicap. On the age front, the best advice is to stick to four and five-year-olds that have won 18 of the last 21 runnings between them. It was a 1-2 for five-year-olds last season following on from a 1-2-3-4-5 for four-year-olds in 2018. A three-year-old has not won since Bel Byou triumphed in 1987 though, in fairness, they only average a couple of runners per renewal, if that now. Looking at the older horses, although many sprinters improve as they get older, it came as a shock to see Out Do win at 25/1 in 2017 at the age of eight given that only the seven-year-old, Selhurstparkflyer (1997), who had also won the previous year’s Wokingham, had struck for horses aged over six since the race's inception in 1896. In-form horses have very much held sway with 19 of the last 23 winners finishing in the first four last time and one of those that didn’t was Laddies Poker Two who was a fourth winning favourite in 11 years in 2010 who was arriving here off a 610-day absence. It has also proven wise to look to lightly-raced sprint handicappers as far as the current season is concerned with 13 of the last 18 winners running no more than twice earlier in the campaign. Obviously there will be more of those taking part this year. No strong race guides but it is worth noting the 6f handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas Day featuring three of the last 19 winners. Not that it is relevant this season but the 6f handicap at Epsom’s Derby Meeting had featured three of the last 21 winners and two of the last seven winners had finished second in a sprint handicap at the Dante Meeting at York on their previous start. Roger Charlton’s record catches the eye having supplied a winner, second and five other top-six finishes in recent seasons. Paul Cole has the best record of current-day trainers in terms of winners saddling the victor in 1977, 1980 and 1987 but he has been struggling for quality horses since his glory days. In the last 32 years only eight winners were drawn in the middle segment in stalls 10-19 but we are set for a field reduction this year of 24 runners. At a glance summary POSITIVES Four and five-year-olds Ran no more than twice earlier in the season Ran in the 6f sprint handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas Day Trained by Roger Charlton or Paul Cole NEGATIVES Aged older than six Unplaced last time out Queen Alexandra Stakes Conditions Race Class 2 | 4YO plus Winner £22,641 2m 5f 143y Last year’s race Winner: Cleonte Jockey: S De Sousa Trainer: A M Balding Owner: King Power Racing Co Ltd Age: 6 Weight: 9st 2lbs Starting Price: 7/2 Season Form Figures: 36 Previous Best: 3rd – Sagaro Stakes (Group 3), Ascot (May 2019) Many races have changed position throughout the week this season but the traditional curtain closer, the Queen Alexandra Stakes, remains the getting-out stakes ending the meeting.  Given its extreme distance for a flat race of 2m 5½f, not all runners truly stay and it used to be generally uncompetitive so therefore offered the punter a real chance of finishing the meeting on a high. Fancied horses still usually came to the fore for the win and places and 23 of the last 29 winners started at no bigger than 8/1. The quality has improved of late so the strongest recent trend that eight of the last 11 winners had been contesting races during the previous jumps season, might come under pressure. As this is a Class 2 affair, it is not the classiest event at the Royal Meeting but what has been noticeable of late is that winners had been regularly contesting higher-quality races, in fact, 16 of the last 25 winners had been contesting Group and Listed races on the Flat at some point in their career. The most two formidable jumps trainers in Ireland, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott, alongside Andrew Balding and Mark Johnston have dominated the race of late winning the last eight runnings between them with two victories apiece. The Willie Mullins-trained favourite has finished placed in four of the last five years (he also had the 40/1 runner-up in 2018), having won it in 2012 and 2014 so look out for his entries. Gordon Elliott took this prize with the former Doncaster Cup winner, Pallasator, in 2018 and he returned last season at the age of ten to finish second. Elliott also took the prize with Commissioned in 2016 and Oriental Fox won twice for Mark Johnston either side of his victory. It was the Andrew Balding-trained Cleonte who took the honours last season so he was adding to the trainer’s victory in 2013 with Chiberta King. Honolulu (2008) remains Aidan O’Brien’s only winner. Also bear in mind that 14 of the last 27 winners had finished in the top half-dozen in any of the three big staying races at the meeting before (Gold Cup, Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes).  At a glance summary POSITIVES Ran during the previous jumps season (notably in novice hurdles) Trained by Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Andrew Balding, or Mark Johnston Posted a top-six finish in the Gold Cup, Ascot Stakes, or a previous renewal of this race Had contested Group or Listed races during their career NEGATIVES Likely to start at a double-figure price