The process behind finding the winner of a race can be as long or as short as one wishes to make it. It can be as simple as eeny, meeny, miny, moe or as complicated as an hours-long dive into every conceivable variable in search of relevant information. For me, it tends to veer more towards the latter than the former. The process is ever evolving, but for the last number of years it has started with a methodology that I refer to as groundwork. This involves attempting to establish what the shape of the race is likely to be in terms of the pace and draw. This is absolutely crucial information, as having a feel for how the race is likely to pan out gives ones a much better idea of what type of horse is likely to be favoured by the run of the race. It can be particularly valuable in the case of handicaps, as given that ability is theoretically balanced out by the weights, those that get the run of the race regularly overperform and vice versa. To give a simple example, there might be a hold-up horse in a race that you think is well handicapped. However, if the groundwork for the race reveals that the early pace is likely to be steady making it difficult for hold-up horses, that should have a major impact on how you view that horse’s chance. Another important element of groundwork is assessing trainer form. This tends to be assessed using some very blunt instruments such as strike rates, but I use the average of the percentage of rivals beaten squared. This is sourced using Proform and represents a more powerful measure of what we are seeking to assess. In common with any other sort of pre-race analysis, estimating the pace of a race, the impact of the draw or trainer based on past evidence doesn’t always work out as hoped. Horses can end up being ridden differently than anticipated either by design or not, draw analysis can be turned on its head by jockeys taking unexpected routes and trainer form can swing around in a relatively short period of time. Even considering that, I have found that the groundwork process to be the best starting point in the search for winners. So, with that in mind, I am going to show my groundwork for a selected group of races to attheraces.com for all five days of Royal Ascot. I’ll put in the hard yards so that you don’t have to and with a bit of luck, it will prove to be a help to you in the search of winners. Here is my groundwork for Wednesday: 16.20 PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (Group 1) (1m 2f) Pace: Sangarius (7) generally races handily, but he did make the running in a small field on his latest outing. He ran below form on that occasion having set an overly-strong pace on ground that was softer than ideal. Given his (albeit mitigated) below-par performance, his connections may be reluctant for him to make the running again. Love (6) has often raced prominently and made the running a few times during her juvenile season. My Oberon (5) made the running once last season and wears first-time cheekpieces here. This pace map has a flashing red light attached to it, as there is a distinct lack of solid pace on paper. With no pacemakers or natural front runners in the race, it has the very real potential of turning into a very tactical affair. Such situations can be very hard to read pre-race, as all of the connections and jockeys will be looking at the same evidence book and some can be tempted to try something different in an effort to seize a tactical advantage. In terms of which could be the one to make such a change, some may consider it unlikely given it is her seasonal reappearance, but Love (6) making the running would be a fascinating prospect. She has always been a very straightforward ride and made all the running to win twice as a juvenile, including an impressive victory in Group 3 company. It would be very hard to be bullish in terms of what will be the one to make the running, but it would be a surprise if the race was run at anything other than a below-average pace of one extent or another. Even though he has a rare turn of foot, this pace scenario won’t be ideal for Lord North (4). Trainer Form: Amongst those trainers with runners in this race that have had a sample of at least 25 runners since May 14th at the time of writing (Monday afternoon), here is the table ordered in sequence of those operating with the highest average percentage of rivals beaten squared. For context, the average PRB^2 figure amongst all trainers with 25 or more runners in the last four weeks is 37.9%. The form of the David Simcock (Desert Encounter) yard would be a concern. 17.00 ROYAL HUNT CUP (Handicap) (1m) Pace: Maydanny (24) has made the running in his last few starts. Teston (17) has made much of the running in his last three starts. Eastern World (8) usually races prominently, but made much of the running in the Lincoln on his penultimate start. Finest Sound (9) and Power Of States (23) like to race prominently. Beat Le Bon (2) can occasionally make the running, but regularly misses the kick and is ridden more quietly as a result. There isn’t the plethora of pace on paper that one often sees in races like this, but there isn’t a shortage of it either. The most likely leaders are drawn middle-to-high and on paper at least, that is the range of draws that seem likely to be favoured by the pace scenario. With that in mind, Irish Admiral (6) is the one amongst the shorter-priced contenders that may not be favoured by the pace setup. Trainer Form: Amongst those trainers with runners in this race that have had a sample of at least 25 runners since May 14th at the time of writing (Monday afternoon), here is the table ordered in sequence of those operating with the highest average percentage of rivals beaten squared. For context, the average PRB^2 figure amongst all trainers with 25 or more runners in the last four weeks is 37.9%. 18.10 Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap) (7f 213y - Round Mile) Pace: First and foremost, it should be noted that this new race is run on the round mile rather than the straight mile. Lola Showgirl (10) has been habitually making the running for most of her career. Ffion (2) has helped push the pace in all of her career starts, thought it should be noted that they all came over seven furlongs and this is her first attempt at a mile, so she may not be quite as aggressively ridden in this. Declared Interest (15) produced a career-best effort when switching to front-running tactics last time, but her wide draw may make it difficult for her to be as forward here. Stunning Beauty (3) has alternated between pushing the pace and racing prominently. Separate (6) switched to front-running tactics last time, but ran well below form, so wouldn’t be sure to look to repeat such tactics here. So I Told You (9) has been racing handily over longer trips than this in recent starts. This pace map suggests that the pace should be at least average and could potentially be a bit stronger, which should give those ridden off the pace a reasonable chance to get involved in the closing stages. That two of the three main candidates to push forward are draw quite wide won’t be helpful to those drawn low that are looking to sit handy in behind the leaders, as the wide-drawn pace pushers making their way across to the front end could result in them getting a shade shuffled back as the pack gets arranged in the early stages. Trainer Form: Amongst those trainers with runners in this race that have had a sample of at least 25 runners since May 14th at the time of writing (Monday afternoon), here is the table ordered in sequence of those operating with the highest average percentage of rivals beaten squared. For context, the average PRB^2 figure amongst all trainers with 25 or more runners in the last four weeks is 37.9%. The form of David Loughnane (Lola Showgirl and Ffion) would be a concern.