Last year’s race Winner: Wild Tiger Jockey: Oisin Murphy Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor Owner: Godolphin Age: 5 Weight: 9st 0lbs Starting Price: 11/2 Season Form Figures: 2411 Previous Best: 1st - Class 3 Handicap, Goodwood (May 2024) By Paul Jones Four and five-year-olds make up the lion's share of runners (usually around 75%) but given that combined they have won 35 of the last 39 runnings, they have been over-performing, so I am more than happy to overlook any horse aged six and upwards. Sonny Liston has finished runner-up in the last two editions and so is now a six-year-old. To narrow it down further, four-year-olds have a significant edge over their year-older rivals. In fact, four-year-olds realised a 1-2-3 in three of the last five runnings following on from a 1-2-3-4-5-6 in both 2016 and 2017 plus a 1-2-4 in 2018, so that seems to be as good a statistical starting point as any. Previous straight-course form at Ascot has proved to be an important factor in recent times and the Victoria Cup at the May meeting has been the best guide providing an ideal springboard for nine of the last 30 Hunt Cup winners. The 2023 winner Jimi Hendrix was third in the previous year’s Britannia Handicap. That three-year-old handicap at the previous season’s Royal Ascot used to be a significant guide but not so much until two years ago, though Zhui Feng was unplaced in the Britannia in 2016 before winning the 2017 Royal Hunt Cup. The 2013 Hunt Cup winner Belgian Bill had finished placed in the Britannia two years earlier. Outside of Ascot form, the Lincoln remains of interest with four of the last 23 Hunt Cup winners having contested the season's traditional first big betting race of the season, though only one of that successful quartet ran into a place at Doncaster. A couple of fairly recent winners contested the Whitsun Cup at Sandown and the 2023 winner was following up his victory in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Although only four of the last 15 winners started at single-figure odds, overall, the Royal Hunt Cup has been a pretty good handicap for punters with 15 winners in the last 32 years being sent off in the first four in the betting. Not bad for almost 50% of winners in that long period of time to be one of the four shortest-priced fancies given that around 30 runners face the starter. Given those SP stats it is no surprise that 19 of the last 26 winners won or finished second earlier in the campaign. Wild Tiger had both those stats in his favour last year, having been sent off 11/2 joint-favourite after winning two handicaps earlier in the season for Saeed bin Suroor, who was winning the race for a third time. We often have a Newmarket-trained favourite, and although the record of the front four in the betting is good, Wild Tiger was just the second market leader to win since 1996. James Fanshawe is a trainer to note on the straight-course races at Royal Ascot and his record in this race passes the closest scrutiny having won it twice and he has had five other runners since the turn of the century also make the frame. Charlie Hills also has two successes, and both were achieved in the last six years. As for the Irish, two wins in the last nine years from limited runners mean that we have to take them very seriously. As far as weight carried is concerned, only one winner has carried more than 9st 5lb (though five carried exactly that weight) since 1980, while when Governorship won in 1988 he was carrying just 1lb higher. A U-turn has occurred in the last decade or so regarding horses saddled with under or over 9st. Going with the ‘unders’ was a must up until 2008, as just two winners since 1989 carried more than 9st to victory, but 14 of the last 18 winners carried 9st+ (including all seven up to Real World in 2021), though that is now reflective of the fact more horses have carried over 9st than otherwise in recent years. Three of the last 17 winners were wearing some kind of new headgear for the first time (as was last the 2023 runner-up) including both of Saeed bin Suroor’s winners. With regards to the draw, what happens earlier in the week is often the best guide with regards to the straight course…until they water that is. At a glance summary Positives Four-year-olds Previous quality straight-track form at Ascot Carrying 9st+Irish-trained Respect Charlie Hills, James Fanshawe and Saeed bin Suroor First four in the betting New headgear Negatives Aged 6+Set to carry 9st 6lb+