Royal Ascot 2025: Buckingham Palace Stakes Stats Guide

Last year’s race
Winner: English Oak
Jockey: James Doyle
Trainer: Ed Walker
Owner: Wathnan Racing
Age: 4
Weight: 9st 8lbs
Starting Price: 10/3
Season Form Figures: 21
Previous Best: 1st - Class 3 Handicap, Haydock (May 2024)

By Paul Jones

English Oak justified favouritism last season, but the last single-figure-priced winner came way back in 2005 with Jedburgh, when the meeting was transferred to York.

Okay, the Buckingham Palace Stakes’ services were not required between 2015-2019 until it was brought back for the Covid year, but that was still a streak of 13 runnings where the winner was sent off at double-figure odds up until 12 months ago. So, this is a race where you might want to open up your mind. In fact, one of those winners was even Highfield Princess, who then dropped in trip and went on to become the champion sprinter the following season with three Group 1 wins.

From the first 18 runnings, I would argue that it the weakest trends handicap of the meeting (bar the new races introduced in the last five years of course), with winners coming from many ages and all over the handicap, so we are very thin on pattern-based angles.

Often you can gloss over handicappers aged six and upwards in hot handicaps as they are thoroughly exposed but horses aged 6+ have won five editions of the Buckingham Palace. However, since the race was brought back five years ago, four-year-olds have won the lot. This includes filling five of the first six places from just eight representatives in a 23-runner field in 2020 and then registering a 1-2-3 in 2021, a 1-3-5-6 in 2022 before a 1-3-4 in 2023 and the 1-2-4 last year, so that would be my statistical starting point if you don’t fancy wading through The Form Book for a large field of middling handicappers.

The draw can be helpful, as a middle draw in big-field, straight course handicaps isn’t usually a positive. The 2014 winner was drawn close to the stands’ rail, while the previous year’s winner was drawn right up against it. Centrally-drawn horses have struggled in the last 10 runnings, with winners coming from stalls 29, 6, 29, 30, 11, 32, 29, 26, 2, 24 and 26.

Ascot form is a plus and last year’s winner had only been beaten a neck at the course the previous autumn. The 2022 winner Inver Park won at the course the previous season and had Ascot stalwart, Ropey Guest, at 40/1 back in second. The winner back in 2013 (the fifth-last running) was second in the big-field handicap for lady riders on King George Day the previous season, the 2012 winner finished fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup the previous season, the 2011 winner was second in the Victoria Cup, the 2010 winner was fifth in a Coventry Stakes, the 2009 winner had finished third in a £100K 7f handicap at the course the previous season and the 2007 winner was third in the previous season’s renewal.

Excluding the Covid year, seven of the last nine winners were having their at least their fourth start of the season. In fact, Witch Hunter was having his eighth run of the year when he was successful for Richard Hannon and Jamie Spencer (the Ascot straight course go-to jockey) last season. Seven of the last nine winners carried 9st+, but the majority of the field are likely to do that these days.

At a glance summary

PositivesFour-year-olds
Drawn in either the highest or lowest six stalls
Quality handicap form at Ascot
Ran 3+ times earlier in the season
Don’t be afraid of big-priced runners

Negatives
None