Royal Ascot 2024: Britannia Stakes Stats Guide

Britannia Stakes
Heritage Handicap | Class 2 | 3YO only
Winner £61,848 - 53 entered to run

Last year’s race
Winner: Docklands
Jockey: Hayley Turner
Trainer: Harry Eustace
Owner: O T I Racing
Age: 3
Weight: 9st 2lbs
Starting Price: 6/1
Season Form Figures: 211
Previous Best: 1st - Class 4 Handicap, Ascot (May 2023)

By Paul Jones

Featuring approximately 30 three-year-olds, the majority of which are unexposed and from top yards, for my money the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive (though not impossible) three-year-old handicap of the season.

That said, despite its highly-competitive edge, it has actually been a fair race for favourites with six of the last 25 obliging in such a big field following the success of Docklands last season. In fact, 21 of the last 33 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting, so this isn’t punter’s nightmare that many believe to be the case.

An emerging pattern is that eight of the last 13 winners won a handicap on their previous start which is in stark contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top. Some punters fall into the trap of backing a flashy, last-time-out maiden winner from a big yard but no horse with such a profile has won since John Gosden's North Song 27 years ago.

The 2015 winner War Envoy had previously finished last in the French Derby, so he had a most unusual profile for a Britannia winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge was certainly not a trends horse therefore and that included on the weight front too at the time as he carried 9st 6lb. However, five of the last nine winners have now carried over 9st, though two of the last seven crept in as the bottom weight.

Some viewed Saga as an unfortunate runner-up in 2022, so it’s been a while since John Gosden last saddled the winner, but it is still worth noting that going back to and including 1994 he has trained four winners, two seconds and four thirds. Significantly, all four of his winners ended their juvenile season without a victory and also failed to break their maiden tag at first time of asking as a three-year-old. James Fanshawe is another name to consider with a winner and three placed horses from his last four runners.

It is not often that I give jockey trends but, for a massive-field handicap, it is some achievement for Jamie Spencer to have ridden the winner on four occasions since 2003, underlining that he’s probably the best exponent of the hold-up ride in big-field, straight-course handicaps at Ascot.

As far as the draw is concerned, like with many major straight-course handicaps, it often pays to look very low or very high as 12 of the last 25 winners were drawn no more than five positions off either rail. Although Ostilio may have been drawn 15 when he won six years ago, he soon led the main group in a clear lead against the near rail and never looked like being caught under another Silvestre de Sousa front-running masterclass.

At a glance summary

Positives
Won a handicap last time out
First six in the market (the favourite also has a solid record)
Drawn in either the lowest or highest five stalls
Trained by John & Thady Gosden or James Fanshawe
Ridden by Jamie Spencer

Negatives
Last-time-out maiden winner