Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Coventry Stakes

Despite the 150/1 success of Nando Parrado last season (just two weeks into the turf season following the return to racing so a weakened renewal), the Coventry Stakes has been a very good race for punters since it was promoted to Group 2 status 17 years ago with as many as nine favourites or joint-favourites obliging in the last 15 years. Last year’s shock winner became just the fifth winner since Chief Singer won at 20/1 on his racecourse debut in 1983 that failed to start in the first five in the betting and three of those were trained at Ballydoyle.

Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the race’s long history with nine winners but, outside of the Chesham Stakes over 7f, he prefers to get two runs into two-year-olds that he sends to Royal Ascot which clearly wasn’t possible last season. When winning the Oaks, Snowfall became O’Brien’s 29th winner of a British or Irish Classic that wasn’t the shortest price of his contenders and we must also respect his second and third strings (according to the betting) in the Coventry as three of those have won.

Last-time-out winners are usually a must as until Nando Parrado last season, only Harbour Master had won off the back of a defeat in the last 37 years. Usually at least 50% of the field are last-time-out winners and it has definitly paid to concentrate on unbeaten horses. I like the strike rate of winners of their only start having won 13 of the last 28 runnings. The once-raced profile is also favoured for the fillies’ equivalent race at the meeting over 6f, the Albany Stakes.

The Hannon stable has the best record of British-based yards with relatively recent wins for Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit who both won the same 6f maiden at Newbury at the Lockinge Meeting that was won this season by their Gisburn who improved plenty for his debut at the same course when beating debutants so well next time. Threat went close for the yard in the 2019 running of the Coventry finishing second.

Two of the last six Woodcote winners went on to win at Royal Ascot including Buratino (won by 6l) in the Coventry and this season’s contest was won by Oscula (by 3l) for the George Boughey stable that have been so prevalent in juvenile races this season.

As for the best recent Irish guide, two of the last ten Marble Hill Stakes winners (Power and Carravaggio) went on to win here and that race was won in fine style by Castle Star on his fourth start when beating Masseto by 2l.

As an aside, five Coventry Stakes winners between 2007-2012 also went on to win at Royal Ascot the following season.

Positives: Unbeaten (preferably one run and one win), trained by Aidan O’Brien or Richard Hannon, the favourite.

Negatives: Beaten last time out, outside the front five in the betting.