Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Coronation Stakes

Of the big three European versions of the 1000 Guineas, the Newmarket version has fared best being responsible for ten of the last 18 winners and seven of those finished in the first six at Newmarket so that has to the first port of call and starting with Mother Earth who then found just one too good in the French 1000 Guineas when attempting the Classic double. Especially as the second and fourth from Newmarket headed to the Oaks.

Two seasons ago Hermosa failed in her attempt to join Attraction and Winter as a dual Guineas winner who also added the Coronation Stakes but the Irish 1000 Guineas winner has followed up here on nine occasions in the last 34 years which bodes well for Empress Josephine if she is supplemented after edging out stablemate, Joan Of Arc, at the Curragh.

The French 1000 Guineas has held up more than okay given that it wouldn’t have anywhere near the same representation as the Newmarket Classic as seven of last 26 Coronation Stakes winners previously contested that prize (including Watch Me two years ago who was only sixth at Longchamp) with five having finished second or third in that Classic. It seems unlikely though that Couersamba will bid to try and emulate Ervedya who completed the Pouliches-Coronation double in 2015, as her connections seems reticent to travel over with Covid/Brexit issues. Ervedya became the first winner of the French 1000 Guineas to win the Coronation Stakes since Toro in 1957 but many winners of that Classic then head to the Prix de Diane next.

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There have been some surprise results down the years but this Group 1 affair for three-year-old fillies usually goes more or less the way of The Form Book and especially of late with 17 of the last 21 winners found at no bigger than 6/1 with ten starting favourite or joint market leader.

Alpine Star was an unusual winner last year as she became the first filly to take a more softly-softly approach and bypass all the European Guineas’ for nine years and just the second to do so since 1999. She had won a pattern at two though like ten of the last 17 winners.

As far as trainer trends are concerned, Sir Michael Stoute has won four runnings, one ahead of Aidan O’Brien and two ahead of John Gosden but the record of the French overall trumps them all with four winners in the last decade and two of those that weren’t French-trained were French-owned and saddled by Jessica Harrington.

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Positives: Finished in the first six in the 1000 Guineas, finished in the first three in the French 1000 Guineas, the Irish 1000 Guineas winner, the favourite, trained Sir Michael Stoute, French connections, won a pattern race as a two-year-old.

Negatives: Not run in a Classic, likely to start at bigger than 6/1, beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas.