Royal Ascot 2021 Stats Guides: Britannia Stakes

Usually featuring approximately 30 three-year-olds (22 last year to assist with social distancing), the majority of which are unexposed and from top yards, for my money the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive (though not impossible) three-year-old handicap of the season.

That said, despite its highly-competitive edge, it has actually been a fair race for favourites with five of the last 22 obliging in such a big field and Turgenev under Dettori looked like making that six two years ago until caught late on by Biometric thwarting a massive plunge from 20/1 into 7/2 with Frankie having ridden the previous four winners on the card. In fact, 20 of the last 30 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting (the second-favourite led home the favourite last year) so this isn’t punter’s nightmare that many believe to be the case.

An emerging pattern is that six of the last ten winners won a handicap on their previous start which is in stark contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top. Some punters fall into the trap of backing a flashy, last-time-out maiden winner from a big yard but no horse with such a profile has won since John Gosden's North Song 24 years ago.

The 2015 winner, War Envoy, had previously finished last in the French Derby so he had a most unusual profile for a Britannia winner. Aidan O’Brien’s charge was certainly not a trends horse therefore and that included on the weight front too as he carried 9st 6lb. Just five of the last 31 winners have carried over 9st and two of the last four winners crept in as the bottom weight.

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It’s been a while since John Gosden last saddled the winner but it is still worth noting that going back to and including 1994 he has trained four winners, two seconds and four thirds from 41 runners. Significantly, all four of his winners ended their juvenile season without a victory and also failed to break their maiden tag at first time of asking as a three-year-old. James Fanshawe is another name to strongly consider with a winner and three placed horses from his last four runners.

It is not often that I give jockey trends but, for a massive-field handicap, it is some achievement for Jamie Spencer to have ridden the winner on four occasions since 2003, underlining that he’s probably the best exponent of the hold-up ride in big-field, straight-course handicaps at Ascot.

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As far as the draw is concerned, like with many major straight-course handicaps, it often pays to look very low or very high as 12 of the last 22 winners were drawn no more than five positions off either rail. Although Ostilio may have been drawn 15 three years ago, he soon led the main group in a clear lead against the near rail and never looked like being caught under another Sylvestre de Sousa front-running masterclass. Dettori almost pulled off similar tactics on Turgenev in 2019 until caught by Biometric from stall 29.

Positives: Won a handicap last time out, first six in the market (the favourite also has a strong record), trained by John Gosden or James Fanshawe, ridden by Jamie Spencer, drawn in the lowest or highest five stalls.

Negatives: Last-time-out maiden winner.