ARCADIA, Calif. – Dreams that began early for Potente and Robusta will endure or expire on Saturday when the top 3-year-olds in California race 1 1/8 miles in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. One month after finishing one-two in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes, Potente and Robusta meet again. They face 100-Beyer maiden winner Cherokee Nation, Grade 1 winner Intrepido, Grade 2 sprint winner So Happy, allowance comebacker Vitruvian Man, and Cal Cup Derby winner Start the Ride. All seven seek similar objectives – victory in the $500,000 Santa Anita Derby and a berth in the Kentucky Derby. “Right now, it’s hopes and dreams,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “Anytime you win the Santa Anita Derby here at the most beautiful track in America, it means something.” :: DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day. It means everything in terms of the Kentucky Derby. Potente is virtually guaranteed a berth with 50 qualifying points, but others are short. Robusta has 25 points; Intrepido, 23; So Happy, 15; and Cherokee Nation, 3. Historically, 40 points are needed to make the Kentucky Derby field. The Santa Anita Derby offers points on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to the top five finishers. Baffert has won the Santa Anita Derby a record nine times, and his 10th is within reach. He starts Potente, the 2-1 program favorite, and Cherokee Nation, the 5-2 second choice. Robusta, trained by Doug O’Neill, is listed at a surprising 8-1. His price is likely to be much lower. Potente and Robusta are the principals, and though their Derby dreams started early, both were late on the scene. Potente, a $2.4 million yearling owned by Peter Fluor’s Speedway Stables, did not make his debut until Jan. 31. Asked if it was a rush job to make the Derby with an expensive colt, Baffert shook his head and said, “No, he brought himself here.” Potente, by Into Mischief, came a long way in a short time. He won his sprint debut, then jumped into the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe. For a horse making only his second start, Potente ran super. “He did everything that a horse, second out, is not supposed to do,” Baffert said. Potente ran like a pro. He tucked inside behind the pace, rated comfortably, angled out, and wore down Robusta. Potente galloped out far in front, as if the longer, the better. Juan Hernandez again rides Potente. The fastest Santa Anita entrant is Cherokee Nation, whose maiden romp, for which he earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, came in the sixth start of his career. Cherokee Nation’s improvement was partly the product of a clean takeoff. The gate had been his Achilles’ heel. “We had a lot of gate issues with him. He was bad in the gate,” Baffert said. “We’ve been working, working, working with him.” :: Santa Anita Classic Meet! Get DRF Past Performances, Clocker Reports, and more. Cherokee Nation broke running in the maiden race, pressed the pace outside, and won by 10 lengths with a huge figure. There is a lot at stake for Cherokee Nation on Saturday. With only three points, he is not yet in the Kentucky Derby. “The pressure’s on Cherokee Nation. He has to run one-two,” Baffert said. “His maiden win, if he does that again, he’s going to be hard to beat. When he came back, he didn’t take a deep breath.” Baffert asked the same rhetorical question about Cherokee Nation that handicappers will ask: “Does he put two like that together?” Cherokee Nation drew the rail and must use his speed to establish position. For a horse with a history of slow starts, the inside draw is not ideal. One misstep and it might be over. Even if he breaks running, Cherokee Nation could be under pressure from the outside. Florent Geroux rides Cherokee Nation. He takes over for Emisael Jaramillo, who sticks with Robusta. Doug O’Neill trains Robusta, a Calumet Farm homebred sired by Accelerate. Robusta began racetrack training last spring. Assistant trainer Leandro Mora was instantly enthusiastic. “When they brought him in, Leandro is like, ‘This is our Derby horse,’ ” O’Neill said. “I’m like, what?” Mora knew the colt’s family. Robusta’s second dam, Urbane, was a Grade 1 winner for trainer Brian Mayberry in 1995, when Mora was Mayberry’s assistant. Urbane also finished second in the Kentucky Oaks. Robusta was not precocious, and O’Neill was in no hurry. “He did not look like he was going to run early,” said O’Neill. “He definitely had that [distance] look. It’s coming through as races get longer. We’re seeing that now. He’s a big, big boy and, mentally, he’s still trying to catch up with his big body.” Seventh in his sprint debut in November, Robusta upset Cherokee Nation in a maiden route next out, then finished sixth in the Grade 3 Robert. B. Lewis. He woke up with blinkers added for the San Felipe. Wide throughout, Robusta rallied to the lead at the top of the lane, did not switch leads, and got worn down by a head. It was a breakout performance at the right time of year. If he switches leads in the Santa Anita Derby, Robusta can turn the tables on Potente. O’Neill said Robusta is sending the right signals. “You have to lean on them to get to a race like the Santa Anita Derby, and when they’re thriving off that training, they’ve got the potential to do good things,” said O’Neill. Robusta is thriving. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2026: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more So Happy won his first two starts in sprints, then dueled and finished third in the San Felipe. It is possible, perhaps likely, that the Runhappy colt has distance limitations. The jury is out, according to trainer Mark Glatt. “He’s only ran three times, and it was his first start around two turns,” Glatt said, referring to the San Felipe. “He has every right in the world to take a big step forward in his second route try. We may find out he’s not going to get the distance, and if he turns out to be a really nice one-turn horse, so be it. But for now, he deserves the benefit of the doubt.” Mike Smith rides So Happy, who figures to be forwardly placed. Intrepido won the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes last year and finish fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His runner-up comeback Feb.7 in the Robert B. Lewis knocked him out, and trainer Jeff Mullins skipped the San Felipe to bring a fresh horse into the Santa Anita Derby. Mullins’s record with his four Santa Anita Derby starters is outstanding: runner-up in 2002 with Lusty Latin and three successive wins from 2003 through 2005 with Buddy Gil, Castledale, and Buzzards Bay. Intrepido bears no resemblance to those horses. “The only similarity is he’s going in the Santa Anita Derby,” Mullins said. Hector Berrios rides Intrepido, who breaks from the outside post and has the option of taking back or pressing the pace in the clear. It is uncertain if Intrepido has improved since last year. Vitruvian Man makes his first start since December, while Start the Ride finished a distant sixth in the San Felipe. Listed at 30-1 in the Santa Anita Derby, Start the Ride is the longest shot in the field. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.