$250,000 Withers Stakes, Feb. 11, 2023 [20 qualifying points for first, 8 for second, 6 for third, 4 for fourth, and 2 for fifth] Winner: Hit Show, by Candy Ride Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Manny Franco Owner: Gary and Mary West Distance / time: 1 1/8 miles / 1:54.71 Win margin: 5 1/2 lengths Beyer: 91  By now, you might have lost track of how many 3-year-old stakes horses or stakes prospects are currently trained by Brad Baffert . . . err, sorry, Brad Cox. The number is – a lot. HIT SHOW already had made the list, and more solidly staked a claim as a Triple Crown hope here by running his record to three wins from four starts in winning his stakes debut. The win margin was wide, the Beyer came back salty by this crop’s standards, yet it's fair to wonder how meaningful this performance proves. The runner-up, ARCTIC ARROGANCE, doesn’t stay nine furlongs, Hit Show got a perfect trip, no one else fired as this field finished with huge gaps between them, and the Withers was run over a radically slow surface. That said, Hit Show does appear to be improving and showed off plenty of staying power.  Hit Show broke inward and crowded JUNGFRAU and was outrun for the early lead while being angled toward the rail to save ground around the first turn. Kept in about the No. 2 path while bending, Hit Show stalked the pace two to three lanes off the fence down the backstretch while in hand and in the bridle. Going into the far turn, jockey Manny Franco kept his options open before deciding to steer back toward the rail and get onto the tail of Arctic Arrogance. Franco moved his hands on Hit Show’s withers past the three-furlong pole to assure the colt held his spot, and when ANDIAMO A FIRENZE began fading and gave up his place pressing the leader, Franco and Hit Show were ready. Hit Show came outside Arctic Arrogance, Franco gave him a rousing left-hander, and Hit Show collared the leader past the three-sixteenths. Hit Show drifted right under another left-handed crop and when Franco shifted his weight left, correcting his path, Hit Show, now clear, drifted all the way to the rail. He lumbered home much the best and galloped out well in front, which might not mean much considering no one else was doing much running through the finish.  :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Arctic Arrogance broke a half-beat slow from the rail and was ridden to the lead into the first turn. Taken two paths off the rail, he briefly opened a clear advantage on longshot PROVE RIGHT before that rival came to press him through a quick quarter-mile in 23.53. Arctic Arrogance still traveled strongly into the far turn, put away Prove Right before the three-eighths pole, and shrugged off Andiamo a Firenze, but when Hit Show came to him in upper stretch, the colt had little fight left while staying on for a clear second. His trainer, Linda Rice, sees the horse more as a miler, and that seems right.   GENERAL BANKER, now a one-time winner in 10 starts, lost by seven lengths to Arctic Arrogance in the Jan. 7 Jerome and finished 6 1/4 lengths behind him this time. General Banker broke near the back of the field and raced from that position, his jockey niggling on him as the New York-bred colt brought up the rear of the main pack ahead only of Jungfrau down the backstretch. Coming between horses he briefly ran right next to Hit Show going to the half-mile pole, but Hit Show out-footed him past the three-furlong marker as General Banker was tipped wide for a run. Late to change leads, he clearly was beaten in upper stretch, plugging along for a distant third.  Andiamo a Firenze was back on his heels breaking from post 7 and got stuck three to four paths wide around the first turn. He stayed outside, perched off the speed, down the backstretch and partway around the turn, coming outside Prove Right to make a brief run at the leader before flattening out at the quarter pole and finishing flaccidly.   Prove Right helped Hit Show get the job done, pushing Arctic Arrogance along faster than he wanted to go, but was finished at the five-sixteenths pole.  Jungfrau, the 4-1 third choice, took the worst of things. Hit Show’s break to the left forced Jungfrau’s rider to steady, and when Hit Show dropped inside going to the first turn he wasn’t entirely clear of Jungfrau, whose rider had to snatch him up, Jungfrau thrusting his head out to the left while failing to settle. It looked like the colt never recovered from that trouble.  NINETY PERCENT MADDIE lost ground on the first turn, stalked the pace while wide on the backstretch, and threw in the towel at the three-eighths pole. He was eased but walked off the course.  :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.