$196,000 Robert Lewis Stakes, Feb. 4, 2023 (all horses ineligible for qualifying points) Winner: Newgate, by Into Mischief Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Frankie Dettori Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stable, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Distance / time: 1 1/16 miles / 1:43.11 Win margin: Neck Beyer Speed Figure: 100  Plenty of grumbling about the Lewis attracting a mere four horses that all walked over to the paddock from the Santa Anita barn of trainer Bob Baffert. We get it. Intense concentration at the top of the training market doesn’t help the sport’s health, and this wasn’t exactly a scintillating betting affair. But those convinced there’d be tactical chicanery wound up not having much of an argument; the Lewis unfolded just about how it looked on paper.  NEWGATE, an $850,000 yearling buy, won his July 30 career debut nicely enough but didn’t appear to progress much when thrown to Grade 1 company in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity, followed by the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. Back in California and back to seven furlongs, his third in the Bob Hope felt more mild than wild, but a jockey change to Frankie Dettori in the Jan. 8 Sham, a two-turn mile, came along with a tactical shift. Pressing the pace his first four races, Newgate dropped back last of five in the Sham and came with an encouraging run for second.   :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more With Dettori back aboard, Newgate, the even-money favorite, pulled a similar trip in the Lewis. Dettori didn’t have to take much hold of his mount to get him back at the start, as Newgate seemed content to find his own rhythm. Up front, ARABIAN LION, away slightly awkwardly, set off for the lead, tracked on the outside by HARD TO FIGURE. The latter at 13-1 was the field’s longest shot, while Arabian Lion, coming off a dud in the Los Alamitos Futurity, was dead on the board at 2-1.   His mount already a couple lengths last, Dettori appeared to move his hands slightly heading into the clubhouse turn, and that seemed to light up Newgate, who got strong with his rider as he came up alongside WORCESTER to get a one-out, one-back trip, as they say in Australia. At about the 6 1/2-furlong marker, Newgate threatened to become rank, throwing his head a couple times before Dettori plunked him squarely behind the back end of Hard to Figure, at which point Newgate assented to rating, if only barely. Into the far turn and on toward the three-furlong pole and Dettori abandoned his cover, releasing his hold on Newgate to allow him to range up three-wide outside Hard to Figure and Arabian Lion. Newgate didn’t blow by the top pair and engaged in an upper-stretch battle with Hard to Figure before belatedly changing leads with about 140 yards to run. That gave him the momentum boost he needed to push past and on to victory.   Newgate shut it down just after the wire, Hard to Figure easily besting him on the gallop-out, but I don’t read much into that. Newgate seems like a horse who does just enough and not much more, and Baffert seems to eschew big gallop-outs for the most part. Newgate’s over-racing at points didn’t help him, nor is he the prettiest-going animal, but a 100 Beyer in early February marks a horse as serious. Now, we’ll have to see who trains Newgate in his next start, with Baffert horses ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points, and soon to be Derby-ineligible if they remain in his stable.  On paper, Hard to Figure, twice well beaten by Newgate, looked like the weak link in this all-Baffert affair. He wasn’t. Out for the first time since Nov. 22 after a series of six workouts while racing for the first time in blinkers, Hard to Figure looked sharp from the start, breaking on top before ceding the lead to Arabian Lion. Going on a short rein while well held by Ramon Vazquez, Hard to Figure got a little keen at the five-furlong pole, coming abreast Arabian Lion, before settling back a half-length or so off the leader. Before the quarter pole, with Newgate advancing on the outside, Vazquez asked Hard to Figure for more run and got an instant response, his mount surging to a narrow lead. Hard to Figure had put away Arabian Lion at the three-sixteenths pole and fought off Newgate until the final 100 yards before losing the upper hand, though he stayed on gamely and as mentioned galloped out well in front. The blinkers move apparently worked wonders, Hard to Figure boosting his top Beyer from 80 to 100.   Two-start maiden Worcester tried two turns for the first time, which he appeared to want, and while he, too, produced his best Beyer, 98, he wound up a solidly beaten third. Breaking well enough, Worcester had pace to get into third, tracking Arabian Lion along the rail and drafting comfortably down the backstretch. The problems, such as they were, began about the five-sixteenths pole, where jockey Juan Hernandez asked for more run to match Newgate’s move; Worcester couldn’t provide it. He was outrun to the three-sixteenths pole to the extent he looked definitively beaten at that point, Hernandez steering to the far outside, where Worcester finished decently while unable to gain ground on the top two.   Arabian Lion began his career with a nice win and a good second in one-turn races but now has gone empty in two routes. If it walks like a sprinter and quacks like a sprinter, it probably is a sprinter.  :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.