$402,000 Gotham; Aqueduct; March 4, 2023 (50 qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 15 for third, 10 for fourth, and 5 for fifth)  Winner: Raise Cain, by Violence Trainer: Ben Colebrook Jockey: Jose Lezcano Owner: Andrew Warren and Rania Warren Distance/time: 1 mile / 1:38.09 (muddy, sealed) Win margin: 7 1/2 lengths Beyer: 90  This just was a messy, messy race. The track was sloppy, there were 14 horses, and to make matters worse, Howgreatisnate dropped the rider stumbling out of the gate. The loose horse rolled up on the outside down the backstretch, cleared everyone, and crossed the wire first in the Gotham, tripping the timing eye so that no six-furlong split was available and surely affecting how the race was run.   A strong pace, 22.52 and 45.53, caused the race to totally fall apart: The first, second, third, fifth, and sixth finishers were, respectively, ninth, 13th, 12th, 11th, and 10th at either the first or second call. The odds on four of those six horses ranged from 23-1 to 44-1.   While he won by a wide margin, I can’t take anything more from RAISE CAIN’s performance than he got the right setup, liked the wet track, is capable around one turn, and ran the race of his life. Going forward, I’m skeptical not just of the winner but the entire race, at least as a purported prep for the Kentucky Derby.  You could get dizzy trying to plot Raise Cain’s trip. Leaving from post 11, he broke inward one path, then was allowed to drift farther in, jockey Jose Lezcano taking a look at his options with most of the field in front of him. No horse was within three paths of the rail in the early stages and Lezcano’s first move was to the outside. As the field left the chute and came onto the main track, Raise Cain was widest, some 13 paths from the rail. Then the loose horse clipped past even farther out, and Lezcano took a sharp left turn, moving down to the No. 4 or 5 path while still in 11th place. Coming into the turn, CLUBHOUSE came out into CLEAR THE AIR, who pushed Raise Cain back out about seven wide before Lezcano gradually angled back toward the inside until – believe it or not – he found the rail midway around the turn. Raise Cain got through on the rail inside UNCORRELATED but wasn’t so fortunate trying the same thing with MR. SWAGGER before the quarter pole. Lezcano had to steady his mount, correct him with the crop, then steer right moving into the homestretch. Still full of run, Raise Cain got to about the No. 5 path, quickly collared EYEING CLOVER, who’d taken the lead, and drew clear while failing to switch leads. He finally did switch as he ran down the loose horse, whom Raise Cain defeated while conceding 118 pounds.   Eventful? Yes. Definitive? Yes. Instructive going forward? Perhaps not.  :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more SLIP MAHONEY was soundly beaten while finishing second, but I’d probably prefer him were he and Raise Cain to line up, say, in the Wood Memorial. Slip Mahoney had shown positional speed in slower-paced races and ran fine over a muddy strip two back, but he may have struggled mightily with this surface. If not that, the colt’s mind was entirely not on running in the early stages, as he fell back to last within a half-furlong and was under a ride to go absolutely nowhere down the backstretch. Still last coming to the turn, Slip Mahoney got a pop of the crop, so desperate was the rider to make some sort of headway. But as soon as he turned, the colt took off. His initial wide move was very sharp, then lost some momentum as Slip Mahoney came six or seven paths wide to the quarter pole. He was forced even wider turning for home, maybe nine paths off the fence, at which point he either was 12th or 13th, before once again finding stride and finishing fastest. Slip Mahoney threw in a quick middle fraction and galloped out well; he ought to improve going two turns.  GENERAL BANKER broke inward from post 6, causing a minor chain reaction inside him, raced in the back third of the field while nearer the inside than most down the backstretch, and coming to the half-mile pole was just one or two paths wide. His rider, hitting the turn, took to the outside, and General Banker made an eye-catching move in front of Slip Mahoney. Some eight or nine paths wide, General Banker cornered more handily into the stretch than Slip Mahoney, but when Slip Mahoney found more at the three-sixteenths pole, General Banker, his run flagging a bit, went more evenly to the finish.  Eyeing Clover performed encouragingly in defeat. Racing for the first time beyond a sprint trip and making his stakes debut in his third career start, he was taken back slightly to track the pace. Third into the turn, less than two lengths off the leader, Eyeing Clover made a three-wide bid past the three-furlong marker, took a brief lead after straightening for the wire, and while no match for the winner, he finished only a nose out of third as the only horse close to the pace left standing at the end.  Clear the Air broke from the rail, was seventh nearest the inside rail after a quarter mile, but was shuffled back to 11th going into the turn. He had to be maneuvered around a flagging Clubhouse and appeared to be spinning his wheels at the three-furlong pole while still inside, but when the rider moved out three or four paths from the fence, Clear the Air sprang to life. With plenty of room to operate he swung into the homestretch picking off horses – until the hole he went for between an exhausted RECRUITER and Lugan Knight closed. The jockey had to check and Clear the Air lost nearly all his momentum before gathering himself and coming forward again the final half-furlong. If he’d gotten through that hole, Clear the Air just might’ve been second.   Mr. Swagger, courtesy of General Banker’s right turn out of the gate, had a little early trouble from post 3 that put him nearer the back than the front through the first quarter mile. The rider made a nifty move to go around Clubhouse and get all the way up into sixth – but all that middle moving came at a cost. Sticking to the inside all the way to the finish, Mr. Swagger finished better than many but not well enough to come close to contending. If you think the rail was bad, this is the horse who spent the longest time closest to it.  Lugan Knight broke fine, ran up to be part of the lead pack while racing from fifth, but got caught between horses before the half-mile pole and again just past it. The second time, at about the 7/16 pole, his jockey had to steady him out of a bad spot, and that was about it for Lugan Knight.  :: Take your handicapping to the next level and play with FREE DRF Past Performances - Formulator or Classic.  CARMEL ROAD, in from California, looks like a horse who needs the lead. After being bumped at the start, he got it in the Gotham, which proved his undoing. Displaced at the quarter pole, Carmel Road faded to the wire.  RADIO RED, who drew into the race when Fort Warren was scratched, stalked the pace while very wide. On paper, he looked overmatched, and that is how things played out through the last half-mile.  TRANSECT was very wide to the half-mile pole and lost ground around the far turn, but he’d come under a ride at the three-eighths and was gassed when he hit the homestretch.  Recruiter, a winner in all four of his starts, two of them stakes and twice over sloppy tracks, fought for the lead after breaking from post 13 but threw in the towel before the stretch run.  Uncorrelated, making just his second start, was jostled around in very tight quarters for a few seconds approaching the half-mile pole. He got strong with the rider after that trouble and likely was taken out of his game, doing no more running on this day.  Clubhouse was fifth early before beating a steady retreat. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.