Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby: El Camino Real analysis

$101,350 El Camino Real, Feb. 11, 2023
[10 qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 3 for third, 2 for fourth, and 1 for fifth]

Winner: Chase the Chaos, by Astern
Trainer: Ed Moger Jr.
Jockey: Armando Ayuso
Owner: Adam Ference and Bill Dory
Distance / time: 1 1/8 miles Tapeta / 1:51.68
Win margin: 1 1/2 lengths
Beyer: 83

CHASE THE CHAOS was a mere $10,000 purchase at auction and now has banked $123,000, so good on his connections, but until such time as the Kentucky Derby is contested over a synthetic racing surface, the El Camino Real Derby for the most part won’t mean much.

Yes, Rombauer went on to win the 2021 Preakness after landing the El Camino Real, but Rombauer already had serious 2-year-old dirt form when he won at Golden Gate. Chase the Chaos has started once on dirt, finishing second last summer in an off-turf Canterbury Park maiden sprint.

This race unfolded with a detached leader, NULLARBOR, who opened a 5 1/2-length lead down the backstretch. Chase the Chaos raced among horses in the trailing pack, in the bridle around the first turn and down the backstretch, but working a little harder going to the three-furlong marker. He split horses at the quarter pole, came about four paths wide for his run, and under stout urging was going away late in a solid score, his second win in a row over the Golden Gate Tapeta.

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GILMORE, the Bob Baffert-trained favorite, broke alertly from the rail in his synthetic debut and saved ground racing forwardly in the tracking group. He came under pressure past the three-furlong marker, was guided to his left past the quarter pole, the jockey seemingly looking to split rivals and diving back to the rail when the hole closed. Gilmore finished with some interest but couldn’t quicken with Chase the Chaos.

HARCYN broke well and led the chasing group of runners down the backstretch, making the first move on the pacesetter, whom he caught at the three-sixteenths pole. Harcyn stayed on solidly while passed in the final half-furlong by the top two home.

PASSARANDO ran one of the better races among those beaten. Second-last for much of the running, he commenced a move before the three-furlong marker while racing wide before winding up down near the fence in upper stretch. Swinging back out once again, he came home with the fastest final furlong, 12.63, missing third place by an eyelash.

Nullarbor actually hung in gamely after setting a good pace while racing isolated from the field. He kicked back when Harcyn came to him and only wilted in the final 100 yards.

SEA DOG, IN HONOR OF AUTISM, and HAPPY DOES, longshots all, brought up the rear with no apparent excuse.

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