$1 million Blue Grass, April 8, 2023 [100 qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 30 for third, 20 for fourth, and 10 for fifth] Winner: Tapit Trice, by Tapit Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Luis Saez Owner: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable Distance / time: 1 1/8 miles / 1:50 Win margin: Neck Beyer: 99 The wagering public deserves a round of applause as the first six betting choices finished 1-2-3-5-4-6. The market saw TAPIT TRICE taking a solid forward step, which is exactly what he did. I wrote this regarding his Tampa Bay Derby win: “Tapit Trice is a talent and a physical specimen. He’s a big, rugged fellow who goes with long, bounding strides and looks like he’ll run all day. The gate habits might not improve much, which isn’t the end of the world, but he really needs to figure out how to get into the race sooner and be handier if he’s going to be a serious horse for the Derby and Preakness.”  Well, Tapit Trice did get into the race sooner. He faced the two best horses he’s met in VERIFYING and BLAZING SEVENS, narrowly beating the former and solidly defeating the latter while bumping his best Beyer from a 92 (with Lasix) to a 99 (without). The figure alone puts him on par with the fastest horses in this class.  :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Tapit Trice broke fine from post 1 but his first strides just don’t take him anywhere. He was eighth or ninth after a couple jumps, but Luis Saez rode Tapit Trice hard for position and by the turn he’d almost advanced to fourth. Then CLASSIC CAR WASH dropped down to the rail, forcing Saez to steady a bit and move his mount out to about the No. 3 path. Saez wasn’t waiting around. Onto the backstretch, he let Tapit Trice roll up from seventh all the way to fourth at the five-furlong marker, Tapit Trice going his second quarter mile in 23.79, fastest in the field by .20 of a second. This was much different than Tampa Bay, where Saez was scrubbing on his mount to basically go nowhere at the same point on the track -- a positive sign regarding Tapit Trice’s development.  Four paths wide around the turn, Tapit Trice was under strong urging past the three-furlong pole. Between the five-sixteenths and the quarter pole, the head of stretch, he had come up to the hindquarters of Verifying, who’d put away tiring pacesetter CLEAR THE AIR to take the lead. But Verifying had plenty left. Tapit Trice switched leads without incident but cocked his head toward the stands (hearing the crowd?) as Verifying matched him stride for stride past the eighth pole and to the sixteenth pole. Saez cropped Tapit Trice right-handed at the quarter pole, showed him the stick at the three-sixteenths to try and get his mount to straighten his head, cropped him right-handed at the eighth pole, and with one final right-handed thump with a half-furlong left got that little extra that Verifying couldn’t match. Past the wire, Saez threw the reins a couple times at his mount, looking for a good gallop-out, as the top two cruised around the clubhouse turn.  Tyler Gaffalione aboard Verifying claimed foul, but if anything, it was Verifying drifting out in the final half-furlong that caused the two horses to brush, Tapit Trice taking the worst of that exchange.  If you had to say, you’d probably say the winner was making a little easier work of things than the runner-up, that going forward you’d want Tapit Trice at nine furlongs and beyond. You might also get the sense Tapit Trice still wasn’t entirely focused on the task at hand, and that maybe he could have passed Verifying earlier rather than running alongside him. You probably also ought to wonder how Tapit Trice might handle being jammed up in Derby traffic. That likely wouldn’t go well, but with this performance, the colt showed that with a good trip he is fast enough and just focused enough to win the Kentucky Derby. Verifying, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Blazing Sevens going a one-turn mile in the Champagne last fall, finished nearly six lengths ahead of Blazing Sevens in the Blue Grass. The Champagne was contested over a sloppy surface as was Verifying’s most recent start, the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Verifying might not have liked a wet track in the Rebel, but he also endured a traffic-filled stretch run, the tough part of his trip coming after he’d raced much closer to a strong pace than did the three horses who beat him that day.  On a jockey change from Florent Geroux, Verifying broke well and quickly went forward, but with Clear the Air intent on leading, Gaffalione happily sat second. Clear the Air went a decent clip around the first turn, but the second quarter mile was tepid, Verifying going 24.47 while comfortably maintaining his position. Responsive to his rider, who was being patient, Verifying let Clear the Air tow him into the far turn and to the three-furlong marker, where he took the lead with a sharp move. Bracing for Tapit Trice’s challenge, Verifying changed leads professionally, fought back gamely when Tapit Trice had greater momentum, and turned back the favorite until the final 50 yards. After being headed and brushing with Tapit Trice, Verifying made one final surge at the wire, taking a bit of ground away, or at least keeping Tapit Trice from extending his lead. The pair galloped out as a team, and Verifying’s tactical speed could play well in a Derby that might lack real pace. Blazing Sevens ran better than his 5 1/4-length margin of defeat when fourth in the BC Juvenile but ran worse than anyone could have imagined making his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth. Never in the race, Blazing Sevens clunked home 26 lengths behind victorious Forte. Trainer Chad Brown decided to throw the race out, throw a set of blinkers on Blazing Sevens, and give the colt another chance. Brown was rewarded with a vastly improved performance – but was it worthy of a Derby start? Blazing Sevens broke all right but was outrun in the early stages, going into the first turn eighth while about three paths off the rail. At the seven-eighths pole he was just behind Tapit Trice, and Blazing Sevens’ rider attempted to follow Tapit Trice’s early move down the backstretch. This was only somewhat successful, Tapit Trice briefly getting away at the five-furlong pole, but Blazing Sevens by the turn had once again moved into his wake. Four paths wide, he kept up with Tapit Trice past the five-sixteenths pole but was spun wider than Tapit Trice into homestretch. Blazing Sevens was slow to change leads and by the time he did the top two had gotten away. Tapit Trice went his final three furlongs about .85 seconds faster than Blazing Sevens, whose final furlong in 12.72 tied for fourth fastest. Blazing Sevens got nothing out of his Fountain of Youth. Did he go one-paced late because he needed the race, or because this was farther than he wants to run? SUN THUNDER, coming back just two weeks after finishing fifth in the Louisiana Derby, was fourth but might have been third best. He didn’t lose ground like Blazing Sevens, but he did encounter more traffic and lost position at a key moment. A lumbering type who lacks speed, Sun Thunder had only his stablemate HAYES STRIKE behind him into the first turn but came inside RAISE CAIN to get into eighth. He travelled pretty sweetly down the backstretch while possibly two paths off the fence (there is no head-on replay of the Blue Grass – unfortunate) and didn’t seem to quite have room to come inside SCOOBIE QUANDO at the five furlong marker. At the half-mile pole, jockey Florent Geroux did find space along the rail and Sun Thunder moved through nicely, like a horse that could contend, but he ran into a tight spot at the three-furlong pole and suddenly was shuffled back to 10th. Going four or five wide at the quarter pole, Sun Thunder now had room to run, but after making some upper-stretch progress and coming within a half-length of Blazing Sevens in the end, I’d have liked to see more from the eighth pole to the wire. Sun Thunder looks like he should improve with maturity and has gotten into trouble two races in a row. Let’s see how he trains into the Derby – he could be mildly interesting. Raise Cain, who took advantage of a pace collapse to win the Gotham Stakes, hopped slightly breaking from post 10 and raced from the rear of the field, ahead only of Hayes Strike. Outside and not far behind Sun Thunder at the five-furlong marker, Raise Cain was taken wide on the turn, coming around Scoobie Quando and getting shoved widest, about eight paths from the rail, at the quarter pole. That is a real momentum killer and Raise Cain finished well to miss Sun Thunder by a neck, going his final furlong in 12:49, faster than all save the top two. :: Bet Keeneland with Confidence: Get DRF PPs, Picks, and Betting Strategies. Shop Now.  MENDELSSOHNS MARCH ran fine, working out a favorable stalking trip after breaking from post 11. He held his position to the three-furlong pole but couldn’t run with the top finishers into the homestretch and went evenly to the wire, his final furlong a half-second slower than Raise Cain’s. This was just his third career start and first in a stakes; he didn’t embarrass himself but might be superior on turf. Hayes Strike was last until the quarter pole, where jockey James Graham cleverly steered to the rail, getting through with a clean run that netted his mount a non-contending seventh-place finish. Classic Car Wash, second to Tapit Trice at Tampa, took an inside route, tired past the three-furlong marker, and was no factor. Scoobie Quando, making his dirt debut, raced alongside Raise Cain at the quarter pole but had little for the stretch drive. MAJOR BLUE tracked the pace and ran out of gas on the far turn, beating only wilting pacesetter Clear the Air. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.