Grade 3, $200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, Feb. 12, 2022 (10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth) Winner: Classic Causeway, by Giant’s Causeway Trainer: Brian Lynch Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Owner: Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper Beyer Speed Figure: 88 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY, making his first start since finishing second in his 2-year-old finale in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-kentucky-jockey-club-stakes-analysis), franked the form of that race and served notice he remains among the leaders of this crop with a solid comeback victory. He set or pressed a sharp pace (:22.66, :46.67) over this often-tricky surface, and came away through the lane to prove much the best. The two horses closest to him early wound up beaten 8 1/2 lengths and 16 3/4 lengths, respectively The Beyer figure was moderate, but the next seven horses who followed him home all received Beyer figures below what they earned in their prior starts. As a I result, I’m going to be wary of this figure, as I think it has the potential to be better than at first glance. Combined with the race flow, I think this might be a far better performance than it will appear on paper. In this race, Classic Causeway broke sharply and led into and around the first turn, with LITTLE VIC just to his outside. He raced with Little Vic down the backstretch and into the far turn, went along on his own power until well past the quarter pole, was given a right-handed tap by Ortiz coming off the bend, opened a bit of separation, then drew away from his rivals through the final furlong while strong to the finish after slightly drifting out. His ears were forward on the gallop out, the sign of a horse who had more to give. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2022: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more SHIPSATIONAL, who finished second, broke half a step slow to lose position, then was sent along to be mid-pack while two to three paths wide, but in the clear, around the first turn. He went into the far turn between rivals while four paths wide, was under energetic handling throughout the turn, was fanned five wide into the lane, and kept to his task through the lane while never threatening the winner. This was his first start in more than three months and his first start around two turns. He acquitted himself well. VOLCANIC, who was third, broke well but was taken in hand and went around the first turn mid-pack while three paths wide. He never could drop in down the backside and went into the far turn in the four path, was asked aggressively midway on the turn, kept to his task coming off the bend, drifted in through the lane and had to be corrected, and could not stay with Shipsational in the final furlong. This was his first try around two turns as well. Not a bad try, but the first two were better on the day. STRIKE HARD, who was fourth, broke slowly and trailed into the first turn while in the three path. He made an extended run down the backside while wide and wound up going into the far turn in the five path, was fanned at least six paths wide coming off the bend, and finished evenly. He’s probably best at a slightly shorter trip, but he lost a ton of ground. GOLDEN GLIDER, who was fifth, raced mid-pack in the two path while just inside Volcanic around the first turn. He found himself stymied by traffic heading into the far turn and checked briefly, was sent along in the three path around the far turn, had to check slightly in midstretch when Volcanic crossed in front of him, then lacked the necessary response. He’s probably not a top-flight Derby contender, but considering this was only his third start and he didn’t have the cleanest of trips he might do well next time if properly slotted, which is something at which his soberly realistic connections are well-versed. GOD OF LOVE, who was sixth, hesitated slightly when the gates opened and was off poorly, then raced in the two path, toward the rear of the field, while between rivals around the first turn. He dropped back to last entering the backstretch, was three to four paths wide for much of the far turn, was fanned about seven wide coming off the bend, and passed some weary rivals. This was his first try on dirt after three races on all-weather and one on turf. As he is Ontario-bred with a win in Woodbine’s Grade 3 Grey Stakes, he’s far more likely to pursue the Queen’s Plate route. Little Vic, who finished seventh, was sent along from his wide draw to go up and press Classic Causeway for the lead. He was headstrong and fighting his rider late on that turn and into the backstretch, continued to pull hard while briefly poking his head in front down the backside, settled better by the far turn, began to tire coming off the bend and drifted in in upper stretch, and tired late from his early efforts. He had only two prior starts, both going six furlongs, so this was a big ask. He looks to have some talent if properly managed, such as returning to sprints, but his connections have a history of overmatching horses (look at the sad arc of King Guillermo since May 2020), so who knows if reality will be embraced. KITTEN MISCHIEF, who was eighth, raced toward the rear of the pack while three paths wide around the first turn, was able to gradually angle toward the inside to go into the far turn in the two path, was tipped about four paths wide coming into the homestretch, but never had any appreciable kick. :: For the first time ever, our premium past performances are free! Get free Formulator now! MR. RUM RUNNER, who was ninth, used his rail draw to get a sweet, ground-saving spot behind Classic Causeway around the first turn. He stayed in that spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, then readily faded through the lane. MAKE IT BIG, who was 10th, raced three paths wide around the first turn while just behind the two leaders, then advanced to be third, just outside Little Vic, while in the three path entering the far turn. But he had to be shoved along midway on the turn, had no response, and stopped badly, with his rider taking a sympathetic hold of him midway through the lane. He was 3 for 3 entering this race. Looked like something went amiss. UNPREDICTABLE BAY, who was 11th, saved ground around the first turn while toward the rear of the field, remained inside to the far turn, was asked three furlongs out to advance but had zero response, fell back to last, and then passed an exhausted rival late. He’s got good speed but was devoid of it here, not that it mattered in the overall scheme of things. A first-level allowance around one turn seems a prudent way to go next time. TRADEMARK, who finished last of 12, raced between Mr. Rum Runner and Make It Big while just behind the early leaders around the first turn. He was a bit keen in that spot early down the backstretch, was better by the far turn, was sent along from the two path around the far turn, but was done by the quarter pole and was pretty much eased through the lane.